Too thin of a fold?

Bonk · #1 07-07-2007, 07:27 AM

Started donking up at microstakes (mostly played NL and other games so far).

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) History converter[/url] Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (17 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 19 BB

Is this too thin? Once I saw MP2 call I realized he must have a set as well (the only logical hand given his actions) and it's very probable MP1 got there, so I fold getting 1:20. Is this too thin? Any way MP1 is bluffing here 1 in 20? Put it another way: long term, should I always fold in this spot?

Results (white)

MP1 with NF, ldo, MP2 mucked set of 3

Bona · #2 07-07-2007, 07:34 AM

I cant fold it

OziBattler · #3 07-07-2007, 07:36 AM

with no reads and huge pot Im overcalling. based on the action it seems the flop capper made his hand on the flop so I'd be pretty sure I ahve his set or 2pr beat here. remember, people at 25c/50c dont always think logically.

oh and dont post results, even in white. they dont matter.

Sykes · #4 07-07-2007, 07:56 AM

folding a set here is awful even if you're correct. DUCY?

FineStyle · #5 07-07-2007, 08:00 AM

I would call, the pot is just too big. It appears that MP2 found something on the flop and MP1 is on a flush draw. But according to SSHE you shouldn't pass on a big pot just when a scare card comes.

Bonk · #6 07-07-2007, 08:54 AM

Well, I'm kinda new to limit. This seemed to me like 95% flush or maybe the wheel, so that's not too -EV. Even if it's only 90% it's not that big of a leak.

However - if you guys say it's bad I take your word for it. Next time calling down. Thanks for the input.

calidris · #7 07-07-2007, 08:55 AM

I did that mistake once and folded in a big pot where suddenly the guy (MP1 in this example) woke up on the river when the 3d flush card came in. He bet, the next guy raised and I folded. MP2 won with low set over "MP1" who caught his two pair on the river. I folded top set. Will never do that again.

mmctrab · #8 07-07-2007, 08:55 AM

*grunch*

I'm not folding this on the river for one bet in a pot that size. Even if it were smaller, I think you're good here much of the time.

00Snitch · #9 07-07-2007, 08:59 AM

grunch lol sif fold that getting like 400:1

OziBattler · #10 07-07-2007, 09:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This seemed to me like 95% flush or maybe the wheel, so that's not too -EV. Even if it's only 90% it's not that big of a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

not sure what you are saying isnt a big leak but folding here is a pretty big leak if you do it routinely. a bad fold costs you the entire pot. a bad call costs you at most 1 bet. You cant be 95% sure of anything at 25c/50c. seriously.