QQ preflop, 3 big stacks early

[tmfs]

Venetian CEO 550

Relatively early in the tournamnet, blind are like 200/400/25. I have literally just sat down and it's my first hand at the table. A guy is his late 20's (~45k chips) to the right of the hijack opens for a raise to 1200. An older asian man (~35k chips) in the hijack raises to 10500, and I look down in the CO and see QQ with about 35k in chips. What's my play? The average stack in the tourny is roughly 15k.

[Mench]

shove. beat AK in race.

[tmfs]

[ QUOTE ]
shove. beat AK in race.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was basically my question, are we ok with racing and a small chance of being crushed this early with these stacks?

[bogey1]

I suppose you could do a stop-n-go. Call, shove/call any flop without A or K. If the original raiser goes all in for his 45k you can probably fold figuring the classic 4th raise is AA/KK thing. You potentially escape with 20k chips if he puts in the 4th raise or you bet a bit less than 1/2 the pot on the stop-n-go, which might buy it if the 2nd raiser really has AK and whiffs the flop.

[Newt_Buggs]

Let's say that the initial raiser is opening 15% of hands, or 55+,A9o+,A5s+,KJo+,K9s+,QJs which may be a bit on the tight side. If he calls the shove with KK+ then that means that he calls .89% of hands, or is folding about 94% of the time.

so 6% of the time that we get called there is about 11350 dead money in the pot. Anyway I did a bunch of math real quick that I'm too lazy to write down and it looks like the initial raiser cuts into our EV if we shove by about 355.8 chips if he opens with 15% and calls with KK+.

Then the reraiser is likely to have a hand like AK here, but is also more likely to be donking it up with hands like AJ and 66 here then throwing in a huge overbet with stuff like AA usually, although I could be wrong. We are probably marginally +cEV against him. I'm too lazy to do math on his ranges though and any ranges assigned would be subjective anyway.

Basically its very close. We are somewhat +EV against reraiser probably but some of that gets lost to the initial raiser who gets a cheap shot at taking our stack the times that he has a monster. Both shoving and folding are reasonable, but I would tend to lean towards folding.

I kind of got tired halfway through and only did a half assed analysis.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove. beat AK in race.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was basically my question, are we ok with racing and a small chance of being crushed this early with these stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]
uh, what about JJ? this is 100BB deep, not 400 or anything-- QQ is ahead of a ton of this guy's range.

[Syntec87]

I go all in.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say that the initial raiser is opening 15% of hands, or 55+,A9o+,A5s+,KJo+,K9s+,QJs which may be a bit on the tight side. If he calls the shove with KK+ then that means that he calls .89% of hands, or is folding about 94% of the time.

so 6% of the time that we get called there is about 11350 dead money in the pot. Anyway I did a bunch of math real quick that I'm too lazy to write down and it looks like the initial raiser cuts into our EV if we shove by about 355.8 chips if he opens with 15% and calls with KK+.

Then the reraiser is likely to have a hand like AK here, but is also more likely to be donking it up with hands like AJ and 66 here then throwing in a huge overbet with stuff like AA usually, although I could be wrong. We are probably marginally +cEV against him. I'm too lazy to do math on his ranges though and any ranges assigned would be subjective anyway.

Basically its very close. We are somewhat +EV against reraiser probably but some of that gets lost to the initial raiser who gets a cheap shot at taking our stack the times that he has a monster. Both shoving and folding are reasonable, but I would tend to lean towards folding.

I kind of got tired halfway through and only did a half assed analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're atleast 55% against the asian's range. I did this sim with only 50% of the combos of AA, 100% KK-TT/AK, and 50% AQ. that is probably too tight, but we are still a big fav against that range.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.046 secs 9,380,448,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.349% 54.96% 01.39% 237149022 5998752.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 43.651% 42.26% 01.39% 182354082 5998752.00 { AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KK-TT, AKs, AhQh, AsQs, AKo, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }