Flush draw on 3 of a kind board - turn decision

[Octopus]

2/4 Prima 6 handed

I am HJ with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise it. CO has been 16/10 over 30 hands and he 3-bets. All fold to me and I call.

Flop is 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check and call.

Turn is 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Pot is 4.5BB.

Play?

[K-Slay]

getting roughly 4 or 5-1 I'd fold the turn, your A outs might be for a split, your 9 outs might not be good and the flush might not be good either. Thats a lot of tainted outs for a relatively small pot.

[chief444]

You've got somewhere between 0 and ~26 or something outs to a chop or win. I'd c/c. You're really hardly ever ahead so I definitely c/f the river unimproved. But I think you have enough outs on average against his range to call this.

[Stonewalled]

I wouldn't lead or raise the turn. The question for me is whether to call the turn.

30 hands is an insufficient sample size for me to be at all confident about his pf raising standards. However, I think it's reasonable to assume his range is at least AA-TT, AJ+.

6 combos each of KK-TT, 2 combos of AA, for 26 total that give Villain a FH.

12 combos each of AJ-AK, for 36 total that give Villain a set with better kicker than you, but which are vulnerable to your flush draw.

So, in order to take into account the times you hit your flush but lose, I would discount the 9 flush outs to about 5 outs. Thus, your drawing odds are 8:1. Immediate pot odds are 4.5:1. So, according to this analysis, I fold on the turn.

However, because Villain's pf raising standards are still unknown, the truth is that in the event I would assume a wider pf raising range, and assign myself more outs than 5, and call the turn. I would c/f the river u/i.

[QTip]

This one is quite close imo, and could go either way; however, I think I lean towards c/cing here.

We only have 3 outs probably 40% of the time. However, the other 60% of the time we're pretty loaded with flush/pairing outs and hidden chopping outs like eights, three, Kings, Queens.

This, and I don't want an image that will just fold to the bet/bet/check line, I think makes me want to call. However, I can't criticize a c/f here either.

[mtgordon]

Are you planning on calling the river if a K or Q comes off? I don't think you can so the only way you're splitting those is if he checks the river through.

[QTip]

I think it's rare that AQ bets the river when K falls...etc

[chief444]

That's a good analysis. But you're forgetting about a lot of outs. One 8/ three 3's/ 4 Kings/ 4 Queens/ 2 aces are all potential outs to a split pot against AJ+. Also three 9's to a win.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a good analysis. But you're forgetting about a lot of outs. One 8/ three 3's/ 4 Kings/ 4 Queens/ 2 aces are all potential outs to a split pot against AJ+. Also three 9's to a win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Chief. Very helpful. Another reminder about how little I know, and why this forum is so terrific.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, Chief. Very helpful. Another reminder about how little I know, and why this forum is so terrific.


[/ QUOTE ]
No problem. And FWIW people who post combinations and the math behind their thinking absolutely rock and IMO are much more likely to improve. Do that for a while and you'll notice that you get a much better idea of where you stand even without running the numbers. Note that your analysis shows you're behind almost exactly the 40% QTip posted as a "rough guess".

Just one minor technicality I didn't bother mentioning at first...there are 3 combos of AA.