Tilt $163, TPTK on meh board

[mikeJ]

Blinds = 50/100

I have 11k, button has 2200, I open UTG+1 to 300, 9-handed w/ AKo, button calls, folds around.

Flop: KQJ all [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, I do not have Ah

I c/f to a pot sized bet of 750.

Thoughts?

[Foucault]

If Villain had like 5000, this would be ok. As is, I think he's too short for you to get away here. Bet-call or CRAI.

[mikeJ]

Yo, foucault. Assigning a betting range for villain would be very helpful.

[djk123]

Eh, I would never check fold here ever against some random online player. People are just bad. This bet is the Ahx, lots of pairs with a heart, two pair hands, maybe low flush but unlikely. Think we can rule out any set. I guess T9 and AT are possible, but we still have 4 outs vs 9t and 3 chop outs vs at.

[luckychewy]

need ~42% to breakeven and are ~44% vs. this range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

109,890 games 0.016 secs 6,868,125 games/sec

Board: Kh Qh Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.353% 38.42% 05.94% 42216 6523.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 55.647% 49.71% 05.94% 54627 6523.50 { TT, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

seems like a fold to me as this range is pretty loose and i don't know if all of these hands pot it. i feel like some of them may check behind or bet like 400-500 or something.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
need ~42% to breakeven and are ~44% vs. this range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

109,890 games 0.016 secs 6,868,125 games/sec

Board: Kh Qh Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.353% 38.42% 05.94% 42216 6523.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 55.647% 49.71% 05.94% 54627 6523.50 { TT, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

seems like a fold to me as this range is pretty loose and i don't know if all of these hands pot it. i feel like some of them may check behind or bet like 400-500 or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i wouldn't include 9To, or it at least has to be significantly discounted imo. most people will fold 9to preflop. If you take out 9To, we have about 48% equity.

[mikeJ]

Ehh, I really don't like the range you assigned much and that isn't the best-case scenario range either. Putting full combos of ATo and T9o in villain's range is pretty generous, and putting in stuff full combos of KT/QT/JT and even some of the stronger hands that we are beating is unrealistic.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Think we can rule out any set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of pf/our holding or because sets don't pot monotone flops?

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think we can rule out any set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of pf/our holding or because sets don't pot monotone flops?

[/ QUOTE ]

preflop

[registrar]

People wouldn't flat AA-TT here? I don't think we can discount this as much as you think.