Flush draw in blind battle

[CanuckEh]

How's my line? Does he fold high pairs here?
He is 15/14 over 300 hands and can lay hands down
I was playing 19/13 over 200 hands with him.

SB: $278.75
Hero (BB): $250.55
UTG: $182.35
MP: $200.00
CO: $347.20
BTN: $48.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $5.00

Flop: ($14) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $9.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $26.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $65.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $182.00</font>

[Casper05]

just call the 65 bc youre [censored] here always- he's not folding his OP

[traz]

I think FE is about zero after he reraises you

[CanuckEh]

Even if there is a slight change of him folding, assuming I am 12 outs to win, so like 45% to win, doesn't it make it a +EV play?

[Casper05]

but

there isn't a slight chance of him folding.

[CanuckEh]

[ QUOTE ]
but

there isn't a slight chance of him folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even from a 15/14 player who is obv a thinking player, and we have above max buy in stacks? On a scary board like that??

From his perspective, I'd been tight too, so what am I four betting that flop with that he can beat with a high pair? A9??? (or a flush draw obv [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[Chaos_ult]

when he 3-bets you, he's basically committed.

[traz]

The texture of the board makes it MORE likely he'll felt off with his made hand

[Rainclouds]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if there is a slight change of him folding, assuming I am 12 outs to win, so like 45% to win, doesn't it make it a +EV play?

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't assume you have 12 outs. After the reraise, you probably just have 8 outs and have about 30% equity.

With $39 to call... I can even see a fold here.

[grando]

you either fold to the raise to $65, or you push

he's not folding QQ+ here, but you might fold out JJ and TT

villain is definitely not committed