queen tens

[siegfriedandroy]

Hand 1: 5 handed, I raise q10o in co. good, aggressive sb 3bets me. 5 9 3 r I fold the flop. How often (if ever) should I peel (or raise) flop?

Hand 2: Next hand. Same player raises, and I defend my bb w/ q10o. Flop is 4 8 6 w/ 2 clubs. I have none. How often (if ever) should I do anything but c/f?

[jba]

I fold around 100% of the time. 1 is much much closer. hand 2 imo would be a very very bad peel.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 5 handed, I raise q10o in co. good, aggressive sb 3bets me. 5 9 3 r I fold the flop. How often (if ever) should I peel (or raise) flop?

Hand 2: Next hand. Same player raises, and I defend my bb w/ q10o. Flop is 4 8 6 w/ 2 clubs. I have none. How often (if ever) should I do anything but c/f?

[/ QUOTE ]


i think we can shed some light on hand 1 with an average-outs calc which shouldnt be too hard. it might show whether it is at least close. ill try to get to it later but anyone is welcome to do it in the meantime.

[Victor]

"average-outs calc"

i am curious.

[yourface]

[ QUOTE ]
"average-outs calc"

i am curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't this the same as running a stove sim vs villain's entire hand range?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
"average-outs calc"

i am curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor, what are you doing in these situations?

[PeterPlan]

Hand 1: You have probably less than 20% equity against his range. The flop did not hit your range. You are not unlikely to be dominated and have no showdown value. Just fold it.

Hand 2: Completely different scenario here. You have significantly more equity against his range, your outs are better and you can represent a small pair. Be more inclined to pull a check raise in this spot. How often? Less than 100% of the time i would guess. Maybe 50%?

[DVDA4life]

Another benefit to peeling/ch raising the 2nt flop is you will have lots of bluffing opportunities later in the hand since any 5, 7, or club may scare villain into giving up the pot.

[siegfriedandroy]

hmmm, interesting ideas. Anyone else like (sometimes) making a play on the 2nd flop? If so, how often?

[joker122]

for hand 1:

I gave him this range: 44+, QJs, K9s, KTs, KJo, KQo, A8+ (in actuality his range is probably A5s+ and then A9o+ but to make it easier i just used A8+ as I think it balances out)

that gives us 179 hands he's 3betting with.

you have 6 outs against 107 combos or 60% of the time:

44/66/77/88 – 6 combos each = 24 total
A8, A9, AJ, AK ~ 64 combos
KJ – 16 combos
K9s – 3 combos

you have 3 outs against 48 hands or 26%:

AQ – 12 combos
AT – 12 combos
KQ – 12 combos
QJs – 3 combos
JJ – 6 combos
KTs – 3 combos

You have 0 outs (either drawing to a running straight, 2 pair or trips) against 24 hands or 14%:

55 – 3 combos
99 – 3 combos
TT – 3 combos
QQ – 3 combos
KK – 6 combos
AA – 6 combos

((60*6) + (26*3) + (14*0))/100 = 4.38 average outs

obv this is not 100% accurate because:

1. i have our hand drawing dead to overpairs and sets when that's of course not the case. but i didn't feel like doing the extra math for our "running outs."

2. the IO and RIO of pairing up is another story but i'm thinking they cancel out [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

3. he will check the turn sometimes with various hands and we get a free card.

but getting 8:1 with just over 4 outs i think it's at least close.

please feel free to make any corrections.