short stack vs weird push

Isura · #1 07-05-2007, 12:23 PM

Villain has been pretty quiet, even open limped AQo on button. He has about 15k, and I have about 4.5k. Blinds are 250/500 with 50 ante. This is online $25 tourney btw.

UTG limper (pretty loose limper), and he shoves for 15k from late middle position. I have AJo in the CO. Is this a no brainer call?

alwardc4 · #2 07-05-2007, 12:29 PM

The fact that he open limped AQ on the button, makes me think this is a call. It seems more likely he has any pair (and not AQ or AK) which makes you racing with good overlay. Also, most villains won't play AA or KK this fast. This is a midpair often enough to call.

registrar · #3 07-05-2007, 12:41 PM

I actually think it's pretty close. UTG's stack is somewhat relevant.

Rowem · #4 07-05-2007, 12:45 PM

I dont see villain pushing without a premium hand. What are you hoping he has? I expect 77-AA, very possibly AA because alot of players play it so fast. I would probably fold and hope to find a hand to push with in the rest of the orbit.

Agree UTG stack is important. If you think he might call if you call with a hand like KQ or 55 then maybe you're getting odds but I'd still fold.

registrar · #5 07-05-2007, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Agree UTG stack is important. If you think he might call if you call with a hand like KQ or 55 then maybe you're getting odds but I'd still fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not worried about UTG calling. I just think his stack size helps us define villain's range.

Isura · #6 07-05-2007, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think it's pretty close. UTG's stack is somewhat relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG had about 10k iirc

registrar · #7 07-05-2007, 01:22 PM

Villain has 99-JJ, AK (perhaps 77-88, QQ and AQ but I doubt it.) Some lucky soul who is not at work can stove this. There's a nice overlay so even though you are never ahead and I would suggest very often dominated, I guess this is a =EV shove call. I can still fold if I think more +EV spots are imminant but, in all probability, they're not.

Sherman · #8 07-05-2007, 01:31 PM

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.249% 33.05% 01.20% 183330156 6680622.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 65.751% 64.55% 01.20% 358095096 6680622.00 { JJ-99, AKs, AKo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.120% 32.89% 01.23% 385183092 14432826.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 65.880% 64.65% 01.23% 757167192 14432826.00 { QQ-77, AQs+, AQo+ }

It doesn't seem to make much matter with either range.

Isura · #9 07-05-2007, 03:50 PM

Yeah, AJ is pretty bad against a tight range. I ended up calling and lost to AK.

elcastigador · #10 07-05-2007, 04:36 PM

Villian seems to be playing pretty rocky (hence limping with AQ on button) thus hinting that he's afraid of raising in fear of facing tough decisions in post-flop play. He probably knows (or doesn't care) what UTG is limping with (wide, weak range) and wants to take the pot down now with his AI move. More than likely, you're behind. A pair is most likely in his range, as well as the likelyhood of AQ-AK. As stack-sizes show you've got an effective M of about 5.6, so you're going to have to pick a spot sooner or later. If you think you're racing, and don't mind a coinflip, shove/call, but if you think you can find a better spot soon, given the shady/tough situation here, fold and wait it out. Tough spot to find yourself against AK, but that's why they call it 3-1, you'll win these showdowns sooner or later.