50NL QQ in 3 bet pot, river decision

Eggpie · #1 07-04-2007, 07:45 AM

Villain has been at the table a while, not seen him do anything silly. My pokerHUD isn't working right at the moment, so have i had not stats. Hero is perceived as TAG 14/7 ish.

Do i beat enough on the river here to call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($41)
UTG+1 ($45.80)
MP1 ($50)
Hero ($35.95)
MP3 ($36)
CO ($25.25)
Button ($48.50)
SB ($35.90)
BB ($17.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 5 folds, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($8.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($22.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($22.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero ???

black666 · #2 07-04-2007, 08:04 AM

Bet the turn. You don't want a straight/flush-draw to see a cheap river.

As played this looks like an easy call getting 3:1 with an overpair.

Eggpie · #3 07-04-2007, 08:12 AM

what straight or flush draw calls the flop? in fact what calls the flop that i am beating at all?

black666 · #4 07-04-2007, 09:27 AM

Calling the flop with overcards or a draw is pretty standard, as everyone knows by now that you are supposed to c-bet the flop.
I often call the flop to keep villain honest or to take it away on the turn and pick up a good draw in the process.

Anyway..that's one more reason to call the river - to see what hand villain played this way.

oakrdrzfan · #5 07-04-2007, 11:51 AM

You only have to win one of four times to call river bet and see profit. Do you think he would show up with less than QQ combined with a bluff more than 25% of the time. If so, call.

Did he have JJ and river the set?

Eggpie · #6 07-04-2007, 12:08 PM

Maybe i was slightly mad here.

I didn't bet the turn because very few worse hands are calling, and i wanted to get value out of hands like JJ/88-66 which each have only two outs to catch up.

Its such a WA/WB flop that i don't think there are many draws out there. I don't really think many people call this flop with overcards so i din't feel i needed to protect my hand.

With the range i out him on, i can't see me being good that often, basically his range to me was 66-KK/AK/10x, and i doubt he bets 66-88/AK often enough on the river here. This river bet looks like its for value, not a bluff.

Anyway, i folded. Please berate me more if this is pretty wrong

Warren Harding · #7 07-04-2007, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In fact what calls the flop that i am beating at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

He could well have called you w/ a PP planning to see if you bet the turn or if you were just cbetting. He has PP or an overcard bluff often enough to call here.

machine · #8 07-04-2007, 12:53 PM

I would fold here also, You were maybe beating 99,JJ,AKetc on the flop but by the river all you beat is a smaller PP and with a 7 pfr in early position is this ever 88? I think this is only ever a bluff or your losing. Is it a bluff 25% i think not and id fold. Thats my 2c

Eggpie · #9 07-04-2007, 01:03 PM

but with that river doesn't 77 or something similar just check call? you're not getting called by anything that beats you if you do bet

BT2 · #10 07-04-2007, 01:11 PM

i like to call river. i think you are behind more than half the time, but you only have to be right about 30% of the time to break even. you probably have the best hand almost 40% of the time here. and that number comes purely from experience.