25NL Planned CR runs into massive overbet on "safe" flop

ras52 · #1 07-03-2007, 05:50 AM

(Just posted this on uNL and was told it should be here instead...)

Villain is 10.67/2.25/4.00/178

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10./$0.25.
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $24.55
UTG+1: $17.39
UTG+2: $21.32
MP1: $27.96
MP2: $11.42
MP3: $14.49
CO: $5.90
Button: $3.93
SB: $23.08
BB: $10

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $0.85, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.45, 7 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $10, ...?

I'm not looking forward to playing QQ OOP, but I decided to call the minraise and see if an overcard hits the flop. I like the flop and decide to CR as I want villain's money in the pot... but then get confounded by a 3xPSB. The PF minraise could have been saying "come along", but now the flop bet seems to be saying "go away"!?

SABR42 · #2 07-03-2007, 05:59 AM

Push.

Kos13 · #3 07-03-2007, 06:01 AM

11/2's don't make bets like this with air. I think you're looking at a guy who's frightened that you're going to suck out on his KK/AA. Sometimes, you're up against JJ, but more often than not, you're crushed. FWIW, I hate the c/r here...if you donk into him on the flop (or 4bet PF), his action will tell you what he has, and you can get away for cheap.

Board: 2c 6h 9s
Hand 0 (QcQd): 36.858%
Hand 1 (JJ+): 63.142%

Kos13 · #4 07-03-2007, 06:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting him on? TT+? A guy who has raised 4 times in 178 hands is min-3betting from third position...I don't think he has TT very often. I don't like how the Hero played this because he doesn't give himself a chance to get any information, but as played, what does he beat other than JJ?

EDIT: I forgot this is 25NL. Okay, maybe a push isn't so bad...

wallenborn · #5 07-03-2007, 07:50 AM

I hate going for a checkraise here. His range has to be very narrow, like KK+, AK. If he has AK and his minraise was a sign of him being timid, then he will not bet much on the flop, and you'll win a small pot. If he has AA and his minraise was an attempt to lure you in, then by checkraising you will lose a big pot.

If he cbets normally, i bet out and fold to a raise. If he doesn't cbet often, i am inclined to play this strictly for set value and check/fold.

crunny · #6 07-03-2007, 07:51 AM

Fold. This is QQ+ almost always.

Poker monkey · #7 07-03-2007, 08:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Push. This is TT/JJ/AK almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

crunny · #8 07-03-2007, 08:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push. This is TT/JJ/AK almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

What, so overbets TT & JJ but not QQ,KK,AA?

I'd like to know how you came up with that theory?

ras52 · #9 07-03-2007, 09:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I hate the c/r here...if you donk into him on the flop (or 4bet PF), his action will tell you what he has, and you can get away for cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, that's something that's come up with me before - the need to push some chips in now to potentially save me a lot later.

So alternatives might be:

- 4-bet PF (to 3x his bet?), then get out if re-raised? If called, I'm still in the dark on the flop.

- as played PF, lead out (PSB?), fold to re-raise, CF if called?

Thanks for all the feedback guys.

Bianculli · #10 07-03-2007, 09:39 AM

I'm not defending the theory, but I think the theory is that he is not going to overbet AA or KK on that flop because it is so dry that he would want to value bet (not scared of cheap turn card). With 10-10, almost any card that comes off next is a scare card, so he believes he has the best hand right now (based on how it has played) and wants to take the pot down.