Talk to me about pot odds calls when deep, for significant % of stack.

octaveshift · #1 07-02-2007, 11:38 PM

I just got back from Vegas, where I played a few MTTs. I feel like I played as well as I could, but I ran into 2 nearly identical spots that I didn't have the answer for, and I am hoping the MTT regulars can help me understand what to do, given the situation.

Here is one of the hands:

Binion's $150(?) tournament with 489 players. 80 people left, and money starts at 50:

Full table, blinds 1000/2000 with a 200 ante.

So, 5000 in pot to start.

UTG shoves 9000. Pot is now 14,000.

Folded to me in BB, where I find 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

7k to call, 14k in the pot, and I have a dismal 21k in my stack.

Do I call here getting the right(?) price, even if it means calling off a third of my stack? Winning would be great, but losing puts me in a bad spot with my stack.

I felt like I was definitely as good as or better than everyone at the table, so I opted to fold and make up for it by shoving into the nit in the BB.

A nearly identical situation came up again deep in a tournament at the Orleans, except in that hand, it was 25% of my stack with 74o. UTG shoves... I tank and fold.

Is passing up on spots like these a mistake?

kenny7 · #2 07-03-2007, 01:15 AM

I am totally flip-flopping here. Really think this is dependent on how the table is playing.If I believe that I can steal later,I'd fold here.It is just too big a chunk out of my stack with such a weak hand.

Hand 2 I think is closer simply because you'll have more chips left if you lose the hand.Again,for me it depends on table dynamics etc.

I don't like to call off most of my chips,would rather push w 6-4o then call,and you mentioned that you pushed with what I assume wasn't much of a hand against the BB,so yeah,I'd fold here.

Surprised this hasn't gotten more replies,think this is a situation that comes up fairly frequently in tournaments.

octaveshift · #3 07-03-2007, 01:22 AM

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Surprised this hasn't gotten more replies,think this is a situation that comes up fairly frequently in tournaments.

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+1

Thanks for the reply....

4CardStraight · #4 07-03-2007, 11:42 AM

These are pretty clear folds.

Sure the pot odds are ok versus the hand equity of your hand versus the range of the push, but thats not the problem. The problem is that it is super duper close to chipEV neutral. If you are a better player than the rest of the field, having a 10BB stack with 80 left and 50 pay is a very reasonable position. You can be first in to shove with a decently wide range of hands and abuse your table where you almost always will be getting 5 or 10% of your stack +EV on pushes. There might even be spots where you can resteal, if someone ever open raises to 3bb and might fold if you push.

In short, You shouldnt pass up +$EV spots ever. You should however, pass up +ChipEV spots that might be -$EV. Spots that are extremely thin +chipEV in tournaments you should consider folding, because if you do the math they are probably -$EV. Heres why....

Lets say you have 10BB with 80 people left and 50 get paid. How much $ is each chip worth? Well you have some percentage chance to get each payout place, and your chair has some value, as you can ALMOST fold into the money. Now lets say you lose and are down to 4BB, Now how much $ is each chip worth? slightly more than they were with the 10BB stack. Your chair still has value, maybe 50% of the value it did before, and you still have a percentage chance to make each prize level, something greater than 40% of the chance that you had before.... Now how bout if you win the flip and go to 16BB, how much is each chip worth now? each chips is worth slightly less than they were when you had the 10BB stack. You have a greater chance to win each prize, but not 40% greater. Your chair has increased in value as the likelyhood of folding to the $ increased, but likely not 40% greater.

Thus its pretty easy to do the math and see that in almost all cases in tournaments, the chips in your stack are worth more $ than an equal amount of chips in the pot. If you cut your stack in half you never cut your potential $ by half or more, and if you double your stack, you never double your potential money. Its a fundamental law of how tournaments work.

Thus if you are super close to being +ChipEV on a thin pot odds call, you should really fold.

getting 2 to 1 on a pot odds call where you have any two cards from the big blind, but would really not like to lose the flop, you should really fold. (imho) An exception might be at the final table, where the chip stack sizes matter less than the number of players remaining. So making a thin pot odds call where you WILL NOT BUST might be a reasonably +$EV play, just as an attempt to bust one more player out in a situation where you yourself cannot bust.

As your stack size decreases, each chip in your stack GAINS in value, as the value of your Chair spread across each chip adds more value to each chip.

As your stack size increases, each chip in your stack LOSES value, as the value of your chair is spread across more chips, and the likelyhood of attaining each prize level never increases by as much as your stack did.

MJBuddy · #5 07-03-2007, 11:55 AM

People don't understand that when sklansky talks about taking small edges *THIS* is what he means, not AK vs JJ....

Personally only you can answer it, based off what you know. Call with correct odds or fold and wait to outplay?

#6 07-03-2007, 01:02 PM

Jack-in-a-box · #7 07-03-2007, 01:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]

UTG shoves 9000. Pot is now 14,000.

Folded to me in BB, where I find 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

7k to call, 14k in the pot, and I have a dismal 21k in my stack.

Do I call here getting the right(?) price, even if it means calling off a third of my stack? Winning would be great, but losing puts me in a bad spot with my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not getting the right price in this spot, you are a big underdog to almost all pairs and flipping with overcards

tomek322 · #8 07-03-2007, 01:09 PM

Interesting, if you know you can pick up blinds off nits, than you may want to call the 25% hand.

Reasoning is two fold, you can very well be 65/35 and suck out. Second, I would expect that your BB will not get f-ed with unless people have monsters as you will be perceived(sp?) as a monkey blind defender. PLus your monsters may get called light being that "this guy calls with 74o, who knows what he's raising with."

From a strictly mathematical point of view I think these are both folds.

Jack-in-a-box · #9 07-03-2007, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

UTG shoves 9000. Pot is now 14,000.

Folded to me in BB, where I find 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

7k to call, 14k in the pot, and I have a dismal 21k in my stack.

Do I call here getting the right(?) price, even if it means calling off a third of my stack? Winning would be great, but losing puts me in a bad spot with my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not getting the right price in this spot, you are a big underdog to almost all pairs and flipping with overcards

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Sorry. You are not flipping but like 3/5 underdog to overcards, but this makes things even worse

Popped Rod · #10 07-03-2007, 01:31 PM

I'm take the opposing point of view and will probably be flamed. I'm always gonna call heads up if I'm getting 2:1. Most of the time, you will have live cards and will basically be racing.

If you just want to cash, then folding is a safe plan. But to win a tourney, you need to build stack and passing up 2:1 odds won't get you there.

More times than not, I won't even look at my hole cards and will just call dark if I have the odds...less stress that way.

And as noted, you need to make statement that your BB is not up for grabs and that you will defend your "children".