when to coinflip?

DMC0627 · #1 07-02-2007, 06:42 PM

I have been playing a fair amount of sngs lately at Foxwoods. Seems the same regulars play in these quite a bit. I would appreciate opinions on when you think it is right to coinflip for all/most of your chips. I wouldn't really be willing to do this in a bigger stack tourney, of course, but with the short stack to start with and the fast moving blind structure, I am not sure when its a good idea.

Obv, I never know 100% if I am in a true coinflip or not, but assuming I most likely am, should I go with it? These last approx 90 minutes total, and sometimes the best hand I see is a flip one. For example, there is one guy who will all in with any pair at all. Some guy raised UTG with pocket kings, he "put him on ak" and moved all in to bust out with fours. I have seen him do it time and time again. He always puts them on ace king, and if he has ace king, he does the same thing, and says, I put you on a mid pocket pair. He will do it at any level of the tourney too, even saw him move someone all in with suited aj on the first hand when he was in the BB and only had 50 in chips invested.

This guy is almost always in the sngs I play, and he loves to put people for decisions for all of their chips. Of course, if you double up early, its a pretty easy sail into at least 3rd place money.I know the more skilled of a player a person is, the less likely he/she may be willing to gamble. I would probably put myself in the middle of the group skill level wise of the regulars, and way ahead of the guys who come up for the day. I am also talking more about in the beginning stages, where there is not a lot invested yet. I would be more will near the mid/late stages to flip with a decent hand than at the beginning.

BradleyT · #2 07-02-2007, 06:59 PM

Let's use $100 buy-in, 2000 chips, 10 players, 500/300/200 payouts.

Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Player 1 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 2 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 3 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 4 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 5 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 6 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 7 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 8 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 9 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00
Player 10 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1000 0.1000 $100.00

after double up
Player 1 4000.000000 0.2000 0.1778 0.1556 $184.44
Player 2 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 3 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 4 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 5 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 6 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 7 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 8 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 9 2000.000000 0.1000 0.1028 0.1056 $101.94
Player 10 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 $0.00

You can see when you double up you gain $84.44 and when you don't you lose $100 + RAKE. The rake can push this from bad to real bad. You may gain additional EV by having the chiplead but it needs to be a hell of a lot to overcome your losses.

jesse8888 · #3 07-02-2007, 07:21 PM

Basically you don't want to coin-flip early on.

However, if you're being laid 2 to 1 on a likely coin flip (which is often the case), then the numbers posted above get a lot rosier (mainly because you're equity if you fold is much less than 100 dollars if 1/3rd of your chips are already in the pot).

Diana Ross Fan · #4 07-03-2007, 11:09 AM

Early on:

If you have AK, it probably is a coinflip at best. No need to flip early.

If you are up against the said individual who like to race early on then you can call more liberally with 10s and 9s. If he plays as you describe then more often than not you will be a favorite.

I am not sure where the cutoff would be. Personally I would not put my sng on the line with 88 or worse. Then again I suck.

ymu · #5 07-03-2007, 12:03 PM

Those EV calcs are correct, but as said don't take account of the value of having a big stack. If you are much better at playing a big stack than a short one it might be worth it.

Also, if these tourneys run continuously and this hand happens early, it might be +EV from an hourly rate POV. Live this is less likely - but if you're +EV in the cash games too and there's no wait for a table, it might be worthwhile.