Tough river decision in squeezed pot

[Daddy Warbucks]

Villain is 28/23, and seemed okay from what i'd seen. He insta pushed. Isn't this always a set of jacks? Should i have bet/folded the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($157.63)
UTG ($231.20)
MP ($221.65)
Button ($113.53)
Hero ($197.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, Button calls $7, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $23, Button folds.

Flop: ($69) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $49</font>, UTG calls $49.

Turn: ($167) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($167) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG calls $231.20 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $398.20

[blackbort]

bet fold is better on the river

[Poker_is_Hard]

Bet fold the river.

As played you have to make this call.

Why would a set of Jacks shove this river? Not to say it can't be a set of jacks, but I don't believe you can narrow his/her range to this.

You lose to a set or AK, everything else you beat.... Must Call.

[pokerprose]

I think the river is a pretty simple check fold to be honest...set of Jacks, AJ, AK(?), A4/A6, etc.

If villain is decent what does our hand look like after the turn check? AK. So his river shove is for value because he can beat that and knows what we have.

I'm interested in knowing what you think his range for calling pf is.

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty simple check fold to be honest...set of Jacks, AJ, AK(?), A4/A6, etc.

If villain is decent what does our hand look like after the turn check? AK. So his river shove is for value because he can beat that and knows what we have.

I'm interested in knowing what you think his range for calling pf is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he put you on AK? Would AK check the river?

Does AX or even AJ call oop preflop?

This looks like a pretty clear bluff shove to me, am I way off here?

[pokerprose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the river is a pretty simple check fold to be honest...set of Jacks, AJ, AK(?), A4/A6, etc.

If villain is decent what does our hand look like after the turn check? AK. So his river shove is for value because he can beat that and knows what we have.

I'm interested in knowing what you think his range for calling pf is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he put you on AK? Would AK check the river?

Does AX or even AJ call oop preflop?

This looks like a pretty clear bluff shove to me, am I way off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Our line of rr pf, bet flop, check turn screams a missed big A (AK or AQ). I don't know this specific villain, but 37/22 are going to be raising/calling with too many hands, so suited aces (A4/A6) and some offsuit trash (AJ) are there for sure. Also all sets are in his range. And if he was going to bluff it seems like the turn would have been a good spot for it, since our check there is us giving up very often.

Since our hand looks like a missed big A why would he try and bluff us off of it? We've got TP, he's expecting us to call.

[Poker_is_Hard]

[ QUOTE ]

Since our hand looks like a missed big A why would he try and bluff us off of it? We've got TP, he's expecting us to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not after you check the river. Why would AK not value bet this river?

[Lordy]

Uh, why would he float with AK,A4,A6 and then not bet this turn ? Set of jacks is possible but I'd expect it to bet the turn to make a river shove easier.

I call because I have TP in a re-raised pot and villain's line doesn't make much sense to me.

[pokerprose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Since our hand looks like a missed big A why would he try and bluff us off of it? We've got TP, he's expecting us to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not after you check the river. Why would AK not value bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

How much value is there? Does KJ call? 99?