First losing month ever. Time to start leak searching

[Apanage]

I´m experiencing my first losing month since I started playing poker in august 2005. I´m down 2K with one day more to go.Hell I´m not even showing a profit including rakeback.
I´m having problems this year. Last year I was almost 2BB/100 from 3/6 and upwards but this year I´m down to 0.65.
I have no clue of what I´m doing wrong except for some tilting that I never used to have a problem with.
I have always had a low WSD and a high W$SD but this losing month is troubling me. I have a WSD of 32.5% and a W$SD of 59.5%. WSF 38.96%. Still 2K down which is app.280BB 5/10 and 3/6.How is this possible?
A quick leak search found that I have an extremely high fold to river bet of 49%.

Most folds I do on river are like the hand below:
No reads on villain only stats: 40/20/1.5 over 100 hands WSD 36% W$SD 52%

Is this a call or fold?
What numbers are appropriate when it comes to folding to a river bet if you´re a standard TAG like me (26/19/2.5).


Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to CO.

Results:
Final pot: 5.25BB

[yourface]

fold is fine on a 9 T J river imo

[yourface]

it does look like you aren't showing down enough though

[secretprankster]

Hand looks close but fine, that river is very bad especially considering he limped the CO and is 40/20 so an ace-high hand is unlikely. If that became common I'd start looking him up though.

[sethypooh21]

How many hands is this over?

And to paraphrase, "from time to time, everyone will run worse than they thought possible. The losers are the ones who think they don't deserve it"

[Heisenb3rg]

hand is standard as hell.
Possibly c/f turn.

But yeah dude your WTSD is way too low.

My guess is you are possibly two barreling too much, (as opposed to checking turn, calling river). And/Or folding to turn raises too much. What's your continuation bet turn percentage? How often are you calling down A high to a turn raise against a LAG?


Let me give you an example of a hand where I think most people would not showdown, where IMO its clearly correct.

This player was a bluff happy 50/20/1.8 player that liked to make random plays frequently.



Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Heisenb3rg is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Heisenb3rg 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB caps</font>, Heisenb3rg calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (12SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Heisenb3rg raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, SB calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Heisenb3rg calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Heisenb3rg calls.

Results:
Final pot: 12BB
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed Th 9h</font>
<font color="#ffffff">Heisenb3rg showed Jc As</font>

[Apanage]

Last year was something like 240K overall (from 2/4 to 5/10).This year is maybe 130K. And this month is 20K.
Maybe it is variance. Perhaps I was running good last year.
But I can almost sense that I´m doing things wrong even if I can´t say exactly what i´m doing wrong.
I have a strong feeling that me having a good winrate last year made me feel better at this game than I actually am.
This fact made me playing a little bit overconfident and when reality caught up I´ve swung the other way and I´m actually a little bit too gunshy at the moment.

[sethypooh21]

20k is nothing. Variance + somewhat sub-optimal play is the most likely explanation. And it's very possible that the game conditions changed markedly at your site.

[Guruman]

one of my fav pt leakcheck filters:

in the prefs set the date range to the time frame that you're worried about.

on the main page set the following filter:
vpiput $ in

then sort the resulting hands by # of times. This will proirotize the hands in order of the frequency that you actually choose to play them. Now start scrolling down and looking for red.

[TheWunderkind]

is this WTSD% over your whole sample size?