50NL TPTK turn decision

[BevillTheDevil]

villian is 34/23/4.5 after only 26hands.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100.30
UTG+1: $20
CO: $54.65
Button: $18.60
SB: $49.90
Hero: $90.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2.5</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7.5</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($15.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $11</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($37.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $81.8</font>, Hero ?

[jessyj07]

Trying to think about the hands you beat...You beat Adxx and sometimes he's freerolling you with AdKx. You beat nothing else that would call this flop. You should fold.

[jessyj07]

Meh looking at this in pokerstove I realize that there aren't many combos of SCs he could have that make a flush that don't get AI on the flop. 8d9d is the only SC he could have )unless he'd raise Jd9d UTG) that makes a flush here but he may not push with a gutshot straightflush draw given how deep you guys are so there is KdQd/QdJd/KdJd. But you are also behind to sets.

This is a worst case scenerio but with the strength you've shown I really doubt he's bluffing here...

660 games 0.005 secs 132,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Td 5d 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.303% 15.00% 05.30% 99 35.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 79.697% 74.39% 05.30% 491 35.00 { TT, 55, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, AdKh, AdKs, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs }

even if you get rid of the hands on the flop that had a gutshot straight flush draw you only have 25.3% equity.

[Nick C]

Hmm, well, turned flushes, flopped sets, and AT are possible, so that's discouraging, as is Villain's line in the hand. If he's got an ace though -- and the flop call indicates he does unless he flopped a monster or was drawing -- then that ace is going to be the Ad 50 percent of the time even prior to any turn action. And if he's got top pair plus a flush draw, well, he might be thinking he might as well push and get it over with. (If he's expecting you to bet the river, then you're going to be playing for stacks.) I'm not happy about the situation, but getting nearly 3:1, I would probably grudgingly call, figuring this is just one of those things that happens when so much money goes in preflop and you flop a strong hand.

[volition]

Yeah toss my vote in for folding, TPTK probably isn't good enough now, I'd put him on a flopped set as the most likely holding.

[cooker3]

The villian has played this very strong, I very much doubt you are ahead here. I fold

[Spechel EDD]

id check that turn

[Emperor Norton]

If hero held a diamond redraw, it'd make this a call, yes?

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
If hero held a diamond redraw, it'd make this a call, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]I haven't done the math but I'll say probably not. If hero has the redraw it's certain hero is crushed and is drawing to 7-8 outs.

[fees]

bet more on flop and turn, call shove