WSOP: Final 3 of event #42, Strategy Question

[Gunslinger1988]

This was an amazing hand. We are 3 handed, almost equal in chips. Prizes are 227k, 140k, and 92k. Blinds 20-40k, Game PLO/8. The button raises to 120k. Stacks, Button 510k, Me 620k, Big blind 560k. His hand range is fairly loose here, and he will not fold to a reraise. I have Ad4dQh6h. I call. The big blind pot raises, committing himself. The button as expected goes all=in for 510k.

I tanked for a long time here. I had to factor in my hand equity,( my estimate was 30%) the pot odds, and all the chances of the various prize money finishes. For heads up play, I would have been close to even with the big blind, and a decent favorite over the button, based on our skills. I WOULD LOVE some other opinions on what the right play is here.

[RioGossiper]

Real suprised nobody responded. I was there, I saw your hand in this coup. It's a tough decision, but I think you have to gamble here.

Winner of coup just making a move on you, unfortunately the absolutely horrible player who took 3rd decided AKQ8 rainbow was a good time to re-reraise versus 2 tight strong players.

3 way you were doing very well against most aces and possibilities of their hands. After the fact it looks like a bad fold, but you have to assume they have Aces since the table respected you as tight. You really wanted AKQ8 rainbow to somehow scoop because you would easily outlast him heads up.

Given that you had to get scooped by both to really get hurt, and even then you have chips...I shove 100%.

[ QUOTE ]
This was an amazing hand. We are 3 handed, almost equal in chips. Prizes are 227k, 140k, and 92k. Blinds 20-40k, Game PLO/8. The button raises to 120k. Stacks, Button 510k, Me 620k, Big blind 560k. His hand range is fairly loose here, and he will not fold to a reraise. I have Ad4dQh6h. I call. The big blind pot raises, committing himself. The button as expected goes all=in for 510k.

I tanked for a long time here. I had to factor in my hand equity,( my estimate was 30%) the pot odds, and all the chances of the various prize money finishes. For heads up play, I would have been close to even with the big blind, and a decent favorite over the button, based on our skills. I WOULD LOVE some other opinions on what the right play is here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Buzz]

Gunslinger - Let’s just consider the main pot.

Assuming Hero calls the all in bet, and assuming Button is pot committed, the main pot will come to contain 510K*3. And 510K of that will be from Hero’s stack.

When Hero scoops, he gets his own 510K back, plus increasing his stack size 1020K.

When Hero wins half, he gets his own 510k back, plus increasing his stack size 255K.

When Hero loses, his stack size decreases by 510K.

If Hero’s opponents are both going all-in here, each of them surely has an ace. Let’s give one of them a black ace suited to a three and the other a black ace suited to a king. We’ll leave the other cards blank and simulate, 100,000 runs. I haven’t seen the results of this yet (actually it’s running as I type here) and I’ll report the results just as they turn out.
Hero, A46Qd…9093.42…4683.58…18476
BB, AKYZs…8603.67…3648.59…20201
Button, A3Yzs…5007.92…11828.83…18457

The first number in each row is “high only pots,” the second number is “low only pots,” and the third number is “scooped pots.”

Hero’s pot equity here turns out to be about 32%, close to the 30% you estimated.

Those (decimal) fractions are the result of some ties, but in the interests of simplicity, let’s ignore ties and do some rounding. With only three in the hand, this does not seem an unreasonable first approximation method.

Hero thus scoops 18476 times wins high approximately 18187 times, wins low approximately 9367 times. If so, Hero loses 53970 times.

Thus <ul type="square">when Hero wins for high, his expected increase is 0.18187*255K,
when Hero wins for low, his expected increase is 0.09367*255K,
when Hero scoops, his expected increase is 0.18476*1020K, and
when Hero loses, his expected decrease is 0.53970*510K[/list]Putting that all together, in terms of the effect of the main pot on Hero’s stack size,
0.18187*255K
+0.09367*255K
+0.18476*1020K
-0.53970*510K
= -16.5K.

So by continuing, with a 32% equity, Hero expects to average a loss of 16.5K. However, since he already has 120K in the pot, he expects to lose more by folding than by continuing. Thus at first glance, calling the all-in bet seems correct, because played out over a hundred thousand times, Hero stands to lose less by calling than by folding. If Hero is playing in a ring game, the call is very reasonable.

It’s a tough decision. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Folding after having committed about a fifth of your stack and calling for most of the rest of your stack are both losers, but in a ring game the lesser of the losers is to call.

However, this is not a ring game. If Hero wins or even ties, he does fine. But if he loses, his stack is decimated. And most of the time, as simulated about 54% (and that corresponds to about a 32% equity), Hero loses and his stack is decimated.

I hate being forced to either play meekly or gamble my tournament life when some jackass decides to shove all his chips in before the flop. (I at least like to be the jackass who shoves in all his chips thus forcing my opponents to guess what is best).

But you probably don’t do any better by pushing all in yourself before BB has a chance to act. Both BB and Button probably call, and everybody is in the same ugly gambling on luck spot.

In your shoes, I probably would have called, just as you did, trusting to dumb luck, just as you did, and not liking it much. I have no suggestions for improvement of your game.

Congratulations on making it to the final three.

Buzz

[Kuso]

i think the pf call of the initial raise is the worst part of the play. i'd raise or fold, leaning towards folding. conserving chips in a tournament has strategic value, and your oop and vulnerable to a squeeze. my goal would be not to call off my chips without a monster, and always trying to be the aggressor to attempt to gain fold equity.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the pf call of the initial raise is the worst part of the play. i'd raise or fold, leaning towards folding.

[/ QUOTE ]Kuso - Hero has a very decent (albeit not great) starting hand for a three handed game.

Looks a lot like Button might be trying to steal.

Since everything in Omaha-8 is so flop dependent, Hero doesn't want to commit more chips by re-raising just yet. And in case Button limps, Hero's hand actually fares a bit better in three handed play than in two handed play. (It doesn't win as often, but it wins bigger enough when it wins to compensate for winning less often).

At the point where Hero calls Button's raise, it's pretty hard for Hero to see the pot sized re-raise from BB coming.

Of course when Button makes the huge re-raise, Hero has to feel sick to his stomach, and wish, in retrospect, he had not gotten involved.

But it's hard to fault Hero for calling Button's raise.

[ QUOTE ]
conserving chips in a tournament has strategic value, and your oop and vulnerable to a squeeze.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree. [ QUOTE ]
my goal would be not to call off my chips without a monster, and always trying to be the aggressor to attempt to gain fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]You just don't get dealt that many monsters.

Three handed you have to play more hands than in a fuller game. You're posting a blind two out of every three deals, 60K per round. Your chips simply get dribbled away if you don't do your share of stealing and also picking off steals. If you only call when you get a monster, you don't get much action when you do catch a monster, and you don't catch monsters often enough to keep your head above water. You're trusting more to luck waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for monsters that you are playing your nice but not monster hands.

Buzz

[Kuso]

buzz - i agree with your analysis, but i'm not sure we're really that far apart.


if button is likely stealing, i'd like to take it down with a pf reraise rather than a stop and go type of play. a flat call gives bb good odds to call with a WIDE range, and there are a lot of flops that might look good, but in fact aren't. this gets back to playing this hand oop -- does hero bet out on a decent looking flop, thereby committing himself to call any raise (that likely puts hero ai)?

if button limps, then it's a TOTALLY different situation, and i don't think i'd ever fold this unless i knew that bb was likely to raise (e.g., via some sort of tell). completing would be my preference with raising possible (depending on reads and hand ranges of villains).


regarding the "monster" comment...

1) i realize that you aren't dealt many monsters in plo8, hence my comment. as such, i wouldn't be calling pfrs out of the sb very often... only folding or reraising.

2) it is not so uncommon to flop (relative) monsters in plo8, and calls might be justified then. that being said, more often than not i would think a raise would be more appropriate.


let me make it VERY clear that i was not suggesting that hero should wait for a monster... i was only implying that a monster might be the only time it might be good to call a bet or raise (and even then, i was mainly thinking post flop).


[ QUOTE ]
Three handed you have to play more hands than in a fuller game. You're posting a blind two out of every three deals, 60K per round. Your chips simply get dribbled away if you don't do your share of stealing and also picking off steals. If you only call when you get a monster, you don't get much action when you do catch a monster, and you don't catch monsters often enough to keep your head above water. You're trusting more to luck waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for monsters that you are playing your nice but not monster hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with your analysis here. i guess my two big points are:

1) i don't want to call. i have no fold equity when i call. i can only "pick off steals" by re/raising.

2) i want to limit my exposure to reverse implied odds situations when playing out of the sb... specifically a pf squeeze and playing non-nut hands (the most common situation 3-handed) oop. that's why i prefer a fold to a pfr here most of the time, but a reraise would definitely be in the probability mix.

let me note that i would find bb play a lot different than sb play, but that's because the bb has a lot of advantages that sb doesn't (e.g., usu. a wider range of playable hands that makes bb harder to read, position, etc.).


thanks for your response, buzz, but i'm not sure my comments were interpreted the way they were intended... i'm bad at english like that. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[wiseheart]

Buzz,

Excellent analysis. I didn't respond at first because it seemed like a very statistical question and Im thankful you are here to run those numbers. Also, congrats to OP on the score. Of course, I would fold, but that is because that kind of money would be making me play a bit scared.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
if button is likely stealing, i'd like to take it down with a pf reraise

[/ QUOTE ]Kuso – When picking off a steal, I prefer a re-raise to a call too. But this is a situation where Button may not exactly be stealing, and even if he is, Hero can end up all-in before the flop if he re-raises. I’d rather see the flop with any hand, even AA23d, before making the decision to go all-in. Omaha-8 is very flop dependent – much more so than Texas hold ‘em.

[ QUOTE ]
a flat call gives bb good odds to call with a WIDE range,

[/ QUOTE ]Good point. That’s a risk of calling.

[ QUOTE ]
there are a lot of flops that might look good, but in fact aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]Not sure exactly what you mean. In a short handed game, most flops with which Hero will continue are almost always somewhat scary.

[ QUOTE ]
this gets back to playing this hand oop -- does hero bet out on a decent looking flop, thereby committing himself to call any raise (that likely puts hero ai)?

[/ QUOTE ]Another good point. I don’t know the answer.

[ QUOTE ]
if button limps, then it's a TOTALLY different situation,

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. Agreed. Button makes it tough with the raise.

[ QUOTE ]
regarding the "monster" comment...

[/ QUOTE ]I used that word because it’s the word you used.

[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't be calling pfrs out of the sb very often... only folding or reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]This is a 91st percentile hand in a full, tight game. (I don’t know what it is three handed). At least in a full game, if you fold this hand, you figure to be folding more than nine out of every ten hands you’re dealt to a raise. (I’m guessing it’s close to that here). I think that’s a better way to play in a ring game than in this championship tournament. I don’t think it will take a good poker player very long to figure out that you’re playing very, very tightly in the small blind and therefore are not much of a force to be reckoned with.

[ QUOTE ]
2) it is not so uncommon to flop (relative) monsters in plo8, and calls might be justified then. that being said, more often than not i would think a raise would be more appropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]I don’t understand. This is before the flop. Hero doesn’t have a very good idea whether the flop will fit his hand or not.

[ QUOTE ]
1) i don't want to call. i have no fold equity when i call.

[/ QUOTE ]Good point. To be honest, I also don’t want to call. But I don’t want to raise or fold either.

[ QUOTE ]
i can only "pick off steals" by re/raising.

[/ QUOTE ]I perhaps should not have used “pick off” to describe what I meant.

From Hero’s point of view at the point of time when the hand occurred, it could still be a long session, with many hands to be dealt before resolution. Hero can’t want the player who currently has the button dinking away at the blinds with this sort of raise every time he has the button. Especially considering Hero’s cards, and the fact that Button did raise, chances are BB won’t have a very good hand with which to defend. By calling hero discourages blind steals in this position.

As it turns out, the call is a disaster, but it wouldn’t necessarily be so.

[ QUOTE ]
2) i want to limit my exposure to reverse implied odds situations when playing out of the sb... specifically a pf squeeze and playing non-nut hands (the most common situation 3-handed) oop.

[/ QUOTE ]Me too. You make a good case for not playing the damned hand. However, there are reasons to play it too. And if Hero does play it, assuming he is a skillful player, he should prefer to minimize the risk of going all-in before the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure my comments were interpreted the way they were intended... i'm bad at english like that.

[/ QUOTE ]I think I understand you, except as noted. And you make some very good points. I’m not adamant about playing the hand after the raise, but I can see myself getting in the same pickle here, because things usually would not turn out this badly and because Hero at least cannot get knocked out of the tournament on this hand (although he can admittedly get crippled).

regards,

Buzz

[Gunslinger1988]

Hi, Thanks for all the replies and congratulations. I just got home from the WSOP and can now give some more in depth information on the hand. Here is what I e-mailed in my tournament report:

Here is an amazing and key hand I'll be thinking about for years. We are 3 handed, almost equal in chips. Prizes are 227k, 140k, and 92k. Blinds 20-40k, Game PLO/8. The button raises to 120k. Stacks, Buttonin seat 9 has 510k, Me 620k, Big blind in seat 8 has 560k. Seat 9's hand range is fairly loose here, and he will not fold to a reraise. I have Ad4dQh6h. I call. The big blind pot raises, committing himself. The button as expected goes all=in for 510k.

I tanked for a long time here. I had to factor in my hand equity,( my estimate was 30%) the pot odds, and all the chances of the various prize money finishes. after 3-5 minutes of thinking, I thought it was a coin flip. I even considered asking someone in the crowd for a coin. LOL.

For heads up play, I would have been close to even with the big blind, and a decent favorite over the button, based on our skills. I WOULD LOVE some other opinions on what the right play is here. I plan to ask some other pros what they think.

They had much worse hands then I thought, especially seat 8. Seat 9 had A8KJ and seat 8 had Ah5h57. When I saw the hands I said aloud " boy I should have called". I would have flopped the double nuts, and wound up with 3/4 of the pot. I would have been heads up with a 3-1 chip lead. Instead I was heads-up with a 2 and 1/2 to one chip disadvantage.

By the way, I asked some other pro's like Josh Arieh and Andy Bloch and they thought it was a fold, albeit a very close one. The reason for my not reraising preflop was that I was certain the button was calling. I thought that I could trap him for all his chips postflop if I hit the flop, and get away fairly cheaply if the flop was ugly.

Once it was going to be a 3-way all-in I had so many factors to consider. If I had not had a slight chip lead it would have been a clear fold, due to the prize money jump. But, since there was a decent chance I finish 2nd even if I lose, the decision got really complex. I think my 30% estimate of equity was close,( I ran it on the cardplayer calculator based on the hands I felt they had and it was 29.7%) in fact they had much weaker hands then I thought ( Button AKQ8 and BB had A557). I was thinking that my low of A4 was probably beaten or at least tied. Of course If I had seen their hands it was an easy call.

Another factor is what is a WSOP bracelet worth( in builing a poker resume and endorsements)? And, How does calling or folding impact my chances of winning a bracelet?

[davebreal]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand range is fairly loose here, and he will not fold to a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

given that read, i think your hand is too good not to push here. as far as i'm concerned A4s with 2 excellent sidecards is a premium holding 3-handed. what are you scared of running up against? AA2s? AKK? that would be a case of monsters-under-the-bed syndrome 3-handed.

i'm sure it was tough to deal with the pressure, but even without trying to be detail-oriented, i think not making the isolation play here is always a mistake.

FWIW, on the Poker After Dark show, Andy Bloch was extremely weak-tight and ineffective. I don't think any of his expertise is in big-bet poker.... possibly limit variations though. he is a Full Tilt player, and i've never seen him on any O8 table there.