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#1
06-28-2007, 12:26 PM
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How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
Was just reading their "expert" analysis on the following hand and thought this was a really clear spot [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...yDate=20070626 Hero ($18000) UTG+1($24000) BB($37000) Hero is BTN with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG+1 leads for 3000. MP3 shoves for 3900 (unclear if this is 3900 total or 6900 total) Folds to Hero. Reads: SB is nitty and won't come along. UTG+1 has been aggro recently and BB is a good player. Now to me, this is a really easy shove. ESPN decided a call was best. Here's how the hand plays out. Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls. Flop Kc5c3c Everyone checks Turn 7h Everyone checks River Ad Checks to Hero who bets $3500 (pot $16000). BB folds, UTG+1 shoves. Hero folds. 
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#2
06-28-2007, 01:04 PM
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Re: How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
[ QUOTE ]
Was just reading their "expert" analysis on the following hand and thought this was a really clear spot [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...yDate=20070626 Hero ($18000) UTG+1($24000) BB($37000) Hero is BTN with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG+1 leads for 3000. MP3 shoves for 3900 (unclear if this is 3900 total or 6900 total) Folds to Hero. Reads: SB is nitty and won't come along. UTG+1 has been aggro recently and BB is a good player. Now to me, this is a really easy shove. ESPN decided a call was best. Here's how the hand plays out. Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls. Flop Kc5c3c Everyone checks Turn 7h Everyone checks River Ad Checks to Hero who bets $3500 (pot $16000). BB folds, UTG+1 shoves. Hero folds. [/ QUOTE ] The article says that MP3's push is to 3900. MP3's M is only about 1.5, so he SHOULD have a pretty wide range, which included lots of A's smaller than ours. Note that our M is only about 7. This is a great spot to push all in. It is likely that UTG+1 folds and we are racing MP3 with a ton of dead money in the pot. We only really fear AA and KK from UTG+1 and those hands are less likely because we have AK. Given the read that UTG+1 has been playing aggressively, this becomes a pretty easy push for me.
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#4
06-28-2007, 01:53 PM
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Re: How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
[ QUOTE ]
Why the hell would anyone fold Aces up on that river? [/ QUOTE ] B/C there is only about 1 hand you beat AQ and chop w AK. The better question is why did he bet the river here... What range do you put UTG+1 on that you think he will move all in on this river into a samll side pot? Seems like a rotten river bet but a good fold. You cannot make thin river bets if you can't to fold to a push here.
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#6
06-28-2007, 03:02 PM
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Re: How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
[ QUOTE ]
What are the blinds? Looks like a push PF to me. [/ QUOTE ] 500/1000 with 100 ante
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#7
06-28-2007, 04:13 PM
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Re: How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
Who the hell doesn't just shove prf or the flop?
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#8
06-28-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: How bad is ESPN\'s hand analysis?
Easy shove with that M and an aggressive raiser UTG, by the way the guy (UTG) with JTs played it very poorly, he might have just lost this pot if another club had fallen so he should have bet out. On the flop I just would have pushed if I was hero... to bad if someone is holding two clubs, the pot is sooo big. I think it is a debat on which they want good commentary...
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