100 NL: Lay down the ace-high flush (unpaired board)?

SABR42 · #1 06-28-2007, 01:38 AM

I'm not known for making laydowns generally. I make way more thin calls than tough laydowns. Anyway...

No reads on villain yet:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $109.45
BB: $202.65
UTG: $62.55
UTG+1: $19.00
MP1: $62.85
MP2: $99.00
MP3: $67.25
CO: $22.85
BTN: $108.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, BTN calls $1.00, 4 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks, CO bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BB folds, BTN calls $2.00
 Even though my draw is really obvious, his bet is so small that I only have to extract a few bucks to break even on the call. 

Turn: ($10) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.00, CO folds, Hero calls $6.00
 I think I should have led here. Given that I checked, I think I should just flat-call and lead the river, because if I check-raise my hand is basically face-up, and he will fold. 

River: ($22) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $11.00, BTN raises to $55.00, Hero folds?
 Ugh, sick. I can only beat a bluff here, and this seems like a really bad spot to bluff.

Klompy · #2 06-28-2007, 01:44 AM

really ugly spot, it's such a strange situation though that I think I have to look him up. He might be thinking that you're betting the board, and trying to raise you out so you're not chopping. I wouldn't be all that shocked when he flips over k,9 of diamonds though.

TwoNitty · #3 06-28-2007, 01:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
really ugly spot, it's such a strange situation though that I think I have to look him up. He might be thinking that you're betting the board, and trying to raise you out so you're not chopping. I wouldn't be all that shocked when he flips over k,9 of diamonds though.

[/ QUOTE ]

^^

Cry Me A River · #4 06-28-2007, 01:55 AM

Or he could have the K-high flush. There's only one card that beats you, the 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. How would he have got there with it? What's he open limp the button that has the 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? 97[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? K9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? Ax9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? Wouldn't he raise flop if he'd flopped a small flush?

You've played this extremely passively, particularly the turn. He could easily think his K-high flush is good.

I call. There's way too much chance he has a lower flush or he's trying to push you off a split. Maybe if I had a read the guy was a nit I could fold this but otherwise no.

SABR42 · #5 06-28-2007, 02:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Or he could have the K-high flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless he's a massive idiot I just don't buy that. Raising pot-sized with the lone K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is suicide there.

[ QUOTE ]
There's only one card that beats you, the 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but there are many ways to have one card. If he needed a TWO card straight flush to beat me I would never fold, but there are many many ways to have ONE card.

[ QUOTE ]
How would he have got there with it?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure on that.

Cry Me A River · #6 06-28-2007, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising pot-sized with the lone K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is suicide there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You have no read on this guy. You have no idea if he's decent. And even if he is decent he has to put you on either the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for him to think he's no good with a K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. And given how passively you've played this, particularly on the turn - but even that half pot bet on the river - it's very likely he doesn't put you on the nut flush or straight flush. He figures you for a bluff/blocking bet on a split pot (or his pot) and so he raises you.

You have, essentially induced a bluff (or a thin value bet). When you do that, IMHO, you need to be prepared to call it.

Or better yet, if you're prepared to fold to a raise on the river, why are you betting it? Why not check/call and really induce a bluff? What do you think he calls with? The K-high flush? And...

You're getting 2:1 on the call, if it was even money or something, okay, but I think you're good way more than enough to justify the call.

Cry Me A River · #7 06-28-2007, 02:33 AM

Basically you're saying he only raises this river with teh nutz. Given the way the hand played out and the fact that you have no read on this guy, how reliable do you think that read is?

RyanCMU · #8 06-28-2007, 02:34 AM

I agree with everything CMAR said

SABR42 · #9 06-28-2007, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And even if he is decent he has to put you on either the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for him to think he's no good with a K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]
Thinking he's good with the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is one thing, but raising is another.

What is he expecting to get paid off with? The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]???

[ QUOTE ]
Or better yet, if you're prepard to fold to a raise on the river, why are you betting it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because I'm getting called by worse hands?

You're essentially saying "don't bet if you aren't prepared to call a raise." That's really silly IMO.

SABR42 · #10 06-28-2007, 02:43 AM

Another thought:

I think some people are going to see this hand and basically think "ZOMG you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] callcallcallcallcall."

But how is this hand any different than having a lone K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a board of 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

In both cases I'm beat by 1 card, but would people look at the hand differently just because I have the ace?