200NL, valuebet, yes/no?

[Jigsaws]

Villain is acemanhattan, running 18/10/1.4 over 144 hands. Haven't seen him do much, and he seems to be avoiding me for the most part. I don't think he's a particularly strong player, seen him overlimp with aces once, he played a combo draw pretty passively against a fish betting into him on a paired board (but he did keep drawing). I haven't been out of line, really, picked up a bunch of chips with QQ > AK for half a stack. I have obviously been c-betting some amount, though.

Do you make a valuebet here? If not, what's the worst hand you do make a bet with?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>SB: $673.00</u>
BB: $205.95
<u>Hero (UTG): $316.90</u>
MP: $57.60
CO: $288.50
BTN: $127.20

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $7.00, BB folds

Flop: ($18) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $38.00</font>, Hero calls $24.00

Turn: ($94) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $72.00</font>, SB calls $72.00

River: ($238) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero

[luckybacon]

i would probably just check behind here. if he has some random 2 pair he will call you. i bet he folds kj and k10.

[Nielsio]

Looks like exactly AK. He definitely leads the turn with a set or KQ. He probably leads the river with a flush right?

[wrkingtobegreat]

A flush is unlikely-villain played a combo draw passively before, and would proabably not check one on the river. Yah i agree probably AK or worse. I would value bet about half the pot here.

[blackbort]

i think its a check...i disagree heartily with the statements that it looks like ak and that a flush is unlikely...you have a hard time getting paid by KJ...this couldve been a cr with air that turned a fd and didn't want to get pushed off it...he bascially needs to specifically have ak for a vb to be right

[blackbort]

oh the worst hand i value bet is all sets here...we have the same hand as top 2 since its hard for him to have a bizarre 2 pair that isnt top two...meh idk....its also hard to vb a set when he cant really have top 2 or he'd have shoved the turn...interesting hand

[blackbort]

then again you probably dont want to take unpunctuated advice from a guy you saw make an aq high call down for stacks in a spot he couldnt possibly be good in

[skoldpadda]

Unlikely flush since he calls turn and raised flop. I think AK. Less likely KQ since he should CR turn if had it or lead into you to protect his hand. Problem is you really have to fold to a CR on river if villain makes that play. So I check.

[blackbort]

flush isn't unlikely...villian as described could easily have cr flop and lost his will on the turn and ccalled...also being able to fold to a cr on the river is more of a reason to vb then not to

[Jigsaws]

Bump. I thought this was really close.