live 6/12- top pair, bad kicker: learning when to fold?

[mrcunningham]

Back on the West Coast, 8 handed, weekday morning. Preflop raised ~1x/orbit. Average 5 to a flop.

3 limper, SB (45ish Korean man with ipod on, newish to this game) raises, I call in BB with Q2 suited, limpers call.

Flop: Q86 no flush draws
SB bets, I raise, 1 caller, SB 3 bets, I fold?

[BigBadBabar]

sure if this won't kill your metagame.

[Christian_Peters]

Yeah, this is a real easy fold.

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is a real easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it really an EASY fold? I doubt you are ahead here (key was the raiser is "newish" to the game, not much chance he isn't ahead). But you are getting immediate odds of 18-1 to make 2 pairs on the turn. Still wanna fold this quickly?

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
you are getting immediate odds of 18-1 to make 2 pairs on the turn. Still wanna fold this quickly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good call. OP, call here - you definately have enough odds + metagame. However, I fold turn U.I. getting 10-1.

[BigBadBabar]

no it's not a snap fold, you can fold it now or call and fold the turn. i run poorly and so never hit my second pair [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mrcunningham]

Okay, so my thought is that the villain likely has a AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QQ, since he raised the SB PF and is 3 betting on this flop. Can't think of much else that makes sense given that he hasn't played with me long enough to think that I'd raise his flop with air or on a draw? Who knows what the caller has?

If my range is correct, then there are 12 chances that he has an overpair, 24 chances that he has Q with better kicker, and 3 chances that he has QQ and I'm dead. If he has an overpair, then I have 5 outs. If he has a better Q, then I have 3 outs.

So it would seem that I have the equivalent of something like 3 outs, completely ignoring the caller.

My odds are 17:1 after the drop. Seems pretty close....

Does my reasoning make sense? If not why?

[LaramieJC]

Even if you hit your 2, which is probably your only live out at this point, an 8 or 6 on the river conterfeits you. MP's cold call is also scary - a slow played set of 6s is a possibility. All of this leads me to drop it when it's reraised.