Tournament hand

[bbartlog]

From last nights' donkament. I can see arguments for raising, calling, or folding here. What would you do?
Payout structure is not too relevant to the hand - there are still 22 left at this point and the payout steps are pretty flat until you get to the final table.

PokerStars $5.00+$0.50 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit
Level XI (600/1200)

EP1: 20391 in chips
EP2: 24899 in chips
MP1: 20790 in chips
MP2: 9248 in chips
CO: 17559 in chips
Hero: 27483 in chips
SB: 15628 in chips
BB: 34847 in chips

SB posts small blind 600, BB posts big blind 1200

Dealt to Hero: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ pot : 6000 ]
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets 6000, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: [J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ pot : 18000 ]

BB checks, CO bets 10359, Hero ... ?

[Omaha8sPoker]

Wow, interesting...I would say at this point of the tournament I would raise...If I had to take a guess the villian who just bet into you has A2xx...At this point in these tourneys nobody is betting without the nuts...While 75 is obvious the nuts for high and would have you in a bind, I just don't see somebody playing that aggressively with that (ie calling a pot sized bet with all the draws that are out there, flush and higher straight) and I don't see anybody playing a hand with a 75 in it that late in these tourneys anyway (yes I have played in my share of these)...

My question is, why get involved with this hand in the first place...I know the answer is probably going to include that you were on the button with a big pair and were double suited...All arguments I would buy and would be guilty of using myself...But if you are gonna play this hand why not raise and try to thin out the field?? Towards the end of these things the tightness at the tables is just NUTS, might as well take advantage and punish the limpers...

[bbartlog]

Yeah, I thought maybe I should have raised preflop. But I had been doing a fair bit of preflop raising already and thought I might well get a caller or two, and I think my hand is kind of hard to play the 75+% of the time that the flop doesn't hit it hard (set or nut flush / straight draw). So I decided to just call to see the flop cheaply.

[Omaha8sPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think my hand is kind of hard to play the 75+% of the time that the flop doesn't hit it hard (set or nut flush / straight draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

And I think here is the reason for either raising or mucking this hand...You got caught right here in no-man's land where the flop hit your hand hard-ISH...You have top set but 2 lows and a flush and straight draw out there AND you are playing it against multiple opponents...I think if you can't raise and thin the field to at minimum 2 others, I think mucking here is the best play because limping gets you in trouble more times than it gets you a lot of chips...

Again not saying this is the absolute worst play of all time, because there can definitely be a case made to play it because its double suited and I might want to take a look at it myself...But I think you have to use the power of position here...

Just outta curiosity after this post has about 24 hours or so to be viewed I'd be interested in how it played out and see if my read was right on the villian who bet into you...

[I dunno]

Well your getting almost 3-1 on your money, and I doubt you're behind that much against the CO. What do you know about the BB, because that seems like the only difficult part of the hand.

Actually, after thinking about it for a second, there's really only one decision to be made, which is whether the BB will fold a made low if you raise after he called the flop. Even if you shove, he'd still be getting pretty good odds in a multiway pot, and I can't imagine anyone would fold there.

[I dunno]

Also, I think limping this is fine, especially sense it sounds like people are ready to start playing back at you.

[bbartlog]

What do you know about the BB

Seems tight preflop (not that that helps us narrow the hand range here), predictable/straightforward postflop (haven't seen her angle for a checkraise or slowplay the nuts for example). Maybe a little passive. Was shortstacked until a few hands ago when she flopped a set of aces, turned a full house, and got paid off by two other players.

[I dunno]

If thats the case then I might just call and hope I don't get bluffed off the best hand.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Well your getting almost 3-1 on your money

[/ QUOTE ]I dunno - No. He's not.

I don't know what the correct play is because I don't know how people play this game (pot limit). If I were in Hero's shoes, I'd guess that CO was betting the nut low with a high draw. CO could have the straight, but I'd guess CO might choose not to voluntarily get involved with a hand containing a five and a seven (unless on tilt). Thus I'd read the all-in raise as the nut low, possibly with back-up protection and/or possibly with a high draw.

Then there's BB to contend with. BB is harder to read. I'd guess maybe BB has a heart flush draw and a low. Maybe not.

Meanwhile, Hero has turned the nut club flush draw and has that set of jacks, which is probably the best high hand at the table at this point.... but only for half the pot. (I don't think anybody has the straight, but like I say, I'm unfamiliar with the nuances of pot limit play and could easily be wrong).

There is a discrepancy in the chip count as posted. Looks to me as though there was 6000 in the pot after the first betting round. If so, then with three callers on the second betting round, there must have been 24000, rather than 18000 in the pot after the second betting round.

Divide that 24000 in two to determine what's in Hero's high end share (12000).

Then when CO goes all-in for 10359 (put the 10359 on the low side of the pot), if Hero matches that, he's getting 12000 to 10359, or about 1.2 to 1 (or about 6 to 5).

If BB also continues, put half of 10359 in each side of the pot (high and low) to get about 5180 more in Hero's possible share of the pot. thus if BB also continues, Hero is getting 17180 to 10356, or about 1.66 to 1 (or about 5 to 3).

A problem is Hero is still on a draw (even though he currently probably has the best hand at the table) - and since CO is all-in, and since BB probably has a low too (but may not continue to this bet, especially if Hero raises, all-in), Hero is not getting any implied pot odds.

Hero is simply getting 6 to 5 if BB folds and 5 to 3 if Hero and BB both call. If Hero raises, he's getting worse odds than that.

I don't know what's best to do here, and usually stay out of these pot limit posts... but because of the high/low split pot nature of the game, Hero is not getting anywhere near 3 to 1 pot odds.

Meanwhile, if Hero needs to improve to win, Hero has 17 outs. Thus it's 27 to 17, or roughly 3 to 2 (or 1.6 to 1 against) against Hero improving. Thus in a money game, Hero would need 1.6 to 1 pot odds. Hero is barely getting that if BB calls, but isn't getting that if BB folds. But another consideration in this tournament is Hero is all but finished if he loses, down to 9924 chips if BB doesn't bet the river with a better high hand and pretty much stuck calling on the river because he can't tell if BB would read the lack of a raise on the turn as weakness and simply bet the river with a good low or even possibly bluff the river.

Looks like a very tough decision to me. Damned hard to fold here, but risking ruin with a call or raise.

All in all, I think I'd call, hoping to save those last 9924 chips, just in case. I don't play tournaments much any more because they take a lot of stamina, which is hard for me to muster these days and because they're very stressful and I'm supposed to avoid all stress. But I have come back from having only one chip to winning the tournament. It would be a long upward haul with only 9942 chips but I'd keep them and simply make the call here.

Buzz

[bbartlog]

Buzz -
you are right, there should be 24000 (not 18000) in the pot on the turn. I added the pot sizes by hand (HH converter mangles tournament hands for some reason).