A3os vs TAG Calldown?

aargh57 · #1 06-26-2007, 11:25 PM

In this hand villain has TAG stats (25/18/2.2 over 2000+ hands). Notes on him:
cdwpp(77) vs pf 3 better hu (3rd p)
didn't c-bet turn hu w AK oc's + isd

Anyway, I figured, if I were him, I'd c/r with a pair or a draw so I was a hopin' that he had a FD and was planning on folding if a club fell (except the Ace of clubs) and calling down otherwise. Is this a bad plan? Do I need to know if villain 3 barrels often in these spots before I take this line?

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

sqvirrel · #2 06-26-2007, 11:34 PM

The pot isn't nearly large enough to call down. Even if he won't cr any pair other than a K, if you equally weight the possibility he has a K versus a FD then you have to figure that half the time you are way behind and the other half of the time you are a good bit behind.

You don't have a pair so if he is on a FD he has 15 outs to win which means that he beats you ~ 55% of the time.

It is also very possible that he has a FD with a better ace, and we haven't even considered true monsters that he may hold. You have nothing and may be drawing to tainted outs or to runners only. Easy, easy fold on the flop.

sharpie · #3 06-26-2007, 11:35 PM

Those are awful turn and river cards. I would've folded the flop, but if you make it this far I think you have to fold the river when those cards fall.

aargh57 · #4 06-26-2007, 11:38 PM

All right thanks. I kind of thought so. On the flop, would you call with AQ-A9?

sweetjazz · #5 06-27-2007, 12:00 AM

More power to you if he had exactly J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but you are getting crushed by his range on every street here. It's okay (indeed, prudent) to sometimes fold the best hand in a small pot if you will lose lots of bets the vast majority of times when you don't finish with the best hand.

I'd tend to peel with AQ-A9 hands, always with a backdoor flush draw and sometimes without. But to a certain extent these peels are -EV plays meant to make it more uncomfortable for my opponent to play OOP versus me and hopefully tame him into playing a more easily readable style against me. (The reason they are -EV is because of reverse implied odds. Sometimes I'll hit my hand and end up losing, e.g. spiking an A on the turn versus A8 or spiking an A on the turn but losing to a club flush on the river.)

pegboy · #6 06-27-2007, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
All right thanks. I kind of thought so. On the flop, would you call with AQ-A9?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if the suits were in the same misalignment. I'd need evidence that he check-raises with air.

imitation · #7 06-27-2007, 12:27 AM

I would have called the flop but I would fold to that turn card (sometimes I will call and fold the river especially that river).

Oink · #8 06-27-2007, 02:54 AM

Folding AQ-A9 disregarding suits is way to weak against most online TAGs. He is c/r draws and any pair.