Suited stuff, enough odds? 40 at the Borg

[tradingman123]

Hand 1, I am in the BB and pick up 9/2 suited. UTG (tight, predictable) raises, 4 callers, I call? What about 3 callers?

Hand 2, I am on the button with 6/4 diamonds, UTG raises, UTG + 2 repops, 2 cold callers (I see the SB and BB both reaching for chips) I call 3 cold?

Thanks.

[bakku]

hand 1 is ok, hand 2 isn't

[ProfessorBen]

Hand 1 is standard.
Hand 2 is an instafold. I'm folding for 2 bets too. 97s or 86s would probably be my cut off for 2 bets for sutied 1 gappers and I'm folding all suited 1 gappers except for AQs for 3 bets. KJs-T8s all face varying degrees of domination that negate their high card/high flush strength while the lower ones just aren't strong enough. This is especially true because the raises/reraises are from 1st and 2nd in.

[ssmallz]

hand 1 = fine either way
Hand 2 = if i knew 100% that sb and bb were calling and utg was repopping it, I might call w/97s or maybe 86s but in this case your not getting the odds. I know it seems great that your getting 6:1 on your call but your implied odds aren't there. Since your putting in 3bets pf the final pot has to be 3x bigger than if it was 1 bet pf. You just wont make enough back after you flop a big hand to justify the call.

[tradingman123]

Thanks for everyones responses. I thought the same on hand 2, but I ran the odds through cardplayer.com's hold'em tool, assuming that hero has 6/4 of diamonds, and the field holds the following: JJ, A/Q off, 99 and A/T off, hero's hand rates to be second with 22% chance of winning. What gives?

[ssmallz]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for everyones responses. I thought the same on hand 2, but I ran the odds through cardplayer.com's hold'em tool, assuming that hero has 6/4 of diamonds, and the field holds the following: JJ, A/Q off, 99 and A/T off, hero's hand rates to be second with 22% chance of winning. What gives?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is a little bit narrow. You've gotta include hands like most Axs, KTs+, JTs, QTs+, and other suited connectors.

[ProfessorBen]

The issue isn't percentage, or at least not here. The issue is that you're paying 3 bets to get into the pot, which means your investment be paid off 3 times what it would normally be compared to a pot in which you limped in.
(ie. The return on a $1 investment that has a 10% chance of success needs to be at least $10 to be break even but the return on a $3 with a 10% chance of success needs to be $30. )
Given the way poker works, your initial investment is only thinly correlated with how much you can expect to make postflop. If your hand was hit 20% the time, (rounded for simplicity) you would need to make 5 SB if you limped, a reasonable proposition. However, you would need to make 15SB if you coldcalled 3 bets, something that is much harder to do. This example eliminates paying bets postflop when you chase your draws for simplicity, but the point stands.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1, I am in the BB and pick up 9/2 suited. UTG (tight, predictable) raises, 4 callers, I call? What about 3 callers?

Hand 2, I am on the button with 6/4 diamonds, UTG raises, UTG + 2 repops, 2 cold callers (I see the SB and BB both reaching for chips) I call 3 cold?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think people would be quite surprised if they did any simulation work on the second scenario. When there are that many people calling several bets the remaining deck will be rich in small cards. Hands like 65s and 64s are likely to have an equity edge against this big field. Put some likely ranges for these players in Poker Stove and see. 64s is stronger in this scenario than QJs or JTs, as other players are probably holding all the cards needed to make the hands of the higher value hands. If every one of your opponents had a range of the best 7% only, you'd be the favorite.

In six and seven player pots where lots of players seem to like their hands, small suited connectors and one gaps (that don't contain a duece or trey) are the best hands. In fact, even if the player who 3 bet has AA you still have 19% equity. That's pretty good for putting 3 bets into a 21 bet pot.

[StrictlyStrategy]

When running the PS simulations please factor in the times you and an opponent both make a flush.

[PokerBob]

omg fold hand 2 wtf????