Rate my play. AKo

ginozola · #1 02-22-2006, 07:35 AM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+ checks, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG+ calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+ checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, UTG+ calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+ checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, UTG+ folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 12.20 BB

Interested to know what you think about this one. I'm trying to get my head around odds and such, and figured I had this about right, though if I didn't feel free to blaze me to oblivion.

I wasn't too worried about MP1, he was short on cash and had blown most of it away in the last couple of hands so I wasn't taking him too seriously. UTG+1 had just sat down and paid the BB out of position so again I wasn't too concerned to see him call after my raise.

I knew there was a big possibility of someone holding a Queen or a Jack, or even a big flush draw. On the turn I figured I had 10 outs to give me a good chance of winning the hand (3 A's, 3 K's and 4 10's, though 3 of those could be [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s, completing the flush) and with MP3's bet taking the pot to 0.97 I was getting just below 10-1 on my call.

It's a risky play (probably even poor play) but would you have played any differently? Cheers.

zPro · #2 02-22-2006, 07:43 AM

Check/call this river.
If you bet and get raised, you are dead.
There's also a good chance MP3 has 2 PR here.

Lawman · #3 02-22-2006, 07:52 AM

Not sure about the turn check/call. You were aggressor preflop and on the flop. The turn is a blank and there was a good chance of MP3 checking behind giving any flush draws a free card.

sean c · #4 02-22-2006, 09:22 AM

I like it as long as you were planning on bet/folding the river.

nuts · #5 02-22-2006, 09:34 AM

I think it's fine, as you have 3 outs to the nuts, plus 7 partial outs, say about 6.5 outs total. A call on the turn is okay I think.

I'd be happy to see a free card on the turn, what are you protecting with a bet? Remember we haven't made a hand on the turn and i'd hate to get raised.

check / call on the river is too weak imo, i'm betting, and probably folding to a raise depending on the player. With a passive player i'd instafold to a river raise.

testaaja · #6 02-22-2006, 09:49 AM

some editin ;p

I would call the flop and check call turn. You got around 6.5 outs on flop. You can't drive the flush draws away and you certainly haven't got the best hand.

ginozola · #7 02-22-2006, 10:03 AM

I think I'd have shown too much weakness if I'd checked the river and get a better suggestion of where I'm at if I bet. A busted flush draw folds or makes a donk call or a better hand raises and I fold (a fraction of the time he's bluffing and I fold the best hand, regardless I'd always fold here). If I check/call, I either win one bet or lose one bet, I'd have lost one bet with either option. I think the bet/fold to reraise will come out ahead over time.

any thoughts?

Str8Fish · #8 02-22-2006, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's fine, as you have 3 outs to the nuts, plus 7 partial outs, say about 6.5 outs total. A call on the turn is okay I think.

I'd be happy to see a free card on the turn, what are you protecting with a bet? Remember we haven't made a hand on the turn and i'd hate to get raised.

check / call on the river is too weak imo, i'm betting, and probably folding to a raise depending on the player. With a passive player i'd instafold to a river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with how many outs you're giving him partially. He has 3 outs to T's, which are solid outs. We definitely can't say we have 3 outs to K's and 3 outs to A's here (making them partial outs, obviously). I don't think we can say 1.5 outs x2 here for our overs. The board being suited makes our odds even worse. We usually assign 1.5 outs without a 2-card, same suited board, so I think in this case, at most we can assign 1 out to K's and 1 out to A's. (Does that sound right or is it more 1.25?) So total we might have about 5-5.5 outs.

Spartak · #9 02-22-2006, 10:47 AM

On such a scary board I am not sure I would raise the flop against this many opponents. I assume the main purpose of the raise would be to get the hand heads up and/or get a free card on the turn and I dont think it is happening that often on such a flop.

Str8Fish · #10 02-22-2006, 11:01 AM

Ok I was curious after I posted my original reply how many outs we really have here... like I said, I don't think we can apply the 1.5 outs to overs like we normally do. I threw 3 players with 20% of the top hands into pokerstove, the flop, and the AK hand hero has:

110,921,815 games 457.500 secs 242,452 games/sec

Board: 2c Jd Qd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.6184 % 26.15% 01.47% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 27.6279 % 26.16% 01.47% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 27.6188 % 26.15% 01.47% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 17.1348 % 15.39% 01.74% { AsKh }

So we win this ~17% of the time. Translated to outs, that's 4.88. Can someone check my math on that?