This hand bugs me

Nielsio · #1 06-23-2007, 02:33 PM

This hand is the reason why I had stopped playing hands such as AJo from ep previously. Tell me how to play this hand. The only think I can think of is to c/r the turn, as far as making the play easier and which allows villain to make bigger mistakes.

Villain is 27/3/0.65/71, but at the time I had only about 20-30 hands from him I think, which indicated his range was somewhat tight.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $44.50
BB: $28.65
UTG: $110.75
Hero (MP): $133.25
CO: $23.80
BTN: $69.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3.00, BB folds

Flop: ($10.x) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6.00, SB folds

Turn: ($22.x) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $14.00, BTN calls $14.00

River: ($48.x) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets all-in for $45.75, Hero ..?

BigPoppa · #2 06-23-2007, 02:52 PM

I expect to see a busted draw more than enough times to make a call profitable. Not every time, but enough times.

Mossberg · #3 06-23-2007, 02:52 PM

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but at the time I had only about 20-30 hands from him I think, which indicated his range was somewhat tight.

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not quite sure what you mean by that. If you mean that you only had 20 or 30 hands on villain at the time (so he's basically unknown), then I'd probably just call here. If you had any idea he was as tight and passive as his stats indicate, then I'd fold it.

foobar37 · #4 06-23-2007, 02:53 PM

not opening AJo from the hijack would have been extremely nitty

the hand basically looks fine, and the river is a clear fold against someone with those stats

speaking of stats, it's vpip/prf/agg/?... I though the fourth number was usually total hands

foobar37 · #5 06-23-2007, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but at the time I had only about 20-30 hands from him I think, which indicated his range was somewhat tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

not quite sure what you mean by that. If you mean that you only had 20 or 30 hands on villain at the time (so he's basically unknown), then I'd probably just call here. If you had any idea he was as tight and passive as his stats indicate, then I'd fold it.

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some stats take a long time to converge, but 30 hands is more than enough to figure out he's passive... he vpip 9 times preflop and only raised 1 of them, that's statistically significant

Mossberg · #6 06-23-2007, 03:27 PM

??. uh whatever. if he was like 30/5 over 20-30 hands, I think it's a call. AF is irrelevant over a sample that small, so we don't have enough info at that point to make a laydown imo.