Soccer - Top 4 EPL bet

[KRPI2k05]

On Betfair.com:

Top 4 finish in 2007/08 Prem bet:
Chelsea 1.06
Man Utd 1.06
Liverpool 1.23

Obviously these are are dead certs in my book, with their budgets and existing squads it'll take some freak incident for them to finish outside the 'big 4'

More intrestingly;
Arsenal 1.53
Spurs 4.2

I can't help but see a lot of value in backing Tottenham to crack the top four here. Especially as Henry is off to Spain and it seems Wenger may well follow suit (to Madrid). I just feel the progress Spurs continue to make coupled with the seeming lack of progress the Gooners make, highlights the value in this market.

I'm not saying Spurs will finish above Arsenal, just that 4.2 seems good value as long as Spurs hold on to Berbatov (and I think they will).

Opinions?

Oh, and yes this is my vigin post on 2+2. I've enjoyed browsing this forum for the fast few weeks and felt it was time to get involved. Keep up the good work all. Also I'm sorry if anyone doesn't use decimal odds (Its don't think its custom in the US or in the UK, where I reside)

[KRPI2k05]

I've just realised this should be in the 'Sports betting' forum. My apologies

[New001]

I'm not sure I like it. I'm less high on Spurs than most though. I'd lay off of both bets, and quite possibly Liverpool as well.

[Fletcher19]

i was actually looking at this earlier on betfair too

top 6 is quite interesting, you can get everton at something like 4.5. Seems worth a punt

[TheRover]

Is it even certain that they won't sell Berbatov?

[KRPI2k05]

[ QUOTE ]
i was actually looking at this earlier on betfair too

top 6 is quite interesting, you can get everton at something like 4.5. Seems worth a punt

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, very good point. I don't know why people continually beat Everton down. If they keep Arteta/Johnson I'm sure they will achieve top six. I agree this has value all over it.

Also, Newcastle for some reason are 9.2 to get top 4. WTF? This doesn't seem to make any sense to me as all they've done is replace Parker (good) with Barton (talented but disruptive). And with Big Sam they'll be playing long ball next season - not top 4 quality IMO.

Also Bolton are very long now. I do believe they will be weak next season with Sammy Lee at the helm, but their price for a top six appeals to me too.

[Fletcher19]

yeah i was suprised to see newcastle that high, they are still a pretty crap team regardless of who is managing

[KRPI2k05]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i was suprised to see newcastle that high, they are still a pretty crap team regardless of who is managing

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently Martins may be off too. This maybe a blessing as no-one knows if he's 21/25/29/129 years old. Although I'd have him in my team

[Fletcher19]

lol if they lost him

if they stay healthy they could probably be decent with owen and viduka up front but owen will probably break a toenail and be out for the season as usual.

I can imagine kieron dyer will probably go down after one or two games aswell

[KRPI2k05]

Sadly for them this is too true. Also, Dyer and Owen up front? Thats not even 10 feet combined. If I had to bet 'd figure them for 9th/10th ish. At best