PS 9/360: AJs facing a raise from the CO w/ 12BBs

[RobertJohn]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
(Ante: t100)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t25788
UTG+1: t37641
MP1: t27350
MP2: t95744
CO: t156075
Hero: t25720
SB: t140895
BB: t30787

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to t4000</font>,

It’s the final eight players. Up to this point my image might be somewhat aggressive, but I have backed off for the last couple orbits.

<font color="orange"> My read on the raiser:</font>

· Calls loosely preflop (way too loosely, w/ bad hands)
· He reshoves aggressively (he popped some button raise with Ax and got there earlier)

<font color="green">Things that suck for me: </font>

As for his raising requirements, after ~ 70 hands of data he was ~ a 11/9.

His min-raise: A lot of the bigger stacks had been min-raising and taking pots down so it was somewhat the “standard” open for this table. Yet, I’m not sure exactly if he had been min-raising or not.

Cram/Fold? Why?

<font color="blue">PAYOUTS </font>

1. $810
2. $518
3. $359
4. $259
5. $194
6. $145
7. $113
8. $88

[jgunnip]

I'm confused.
[ QUOTE ]
Calls loosely preflop (way too loosely, w/ bad hands)

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
after ~ 70 hands of data he was ~ a 11/9.


[/ QUOTE ]

????

In general the minraise could be a monster, but I've noticed its more likely to be KQ/KJ/99 ish. You're hand is pretty strong against his range, you're shortstack with 10bb and at least a little bit of FE. I push.

[omg im l337]

Push. M is low and you need to make a move.

[Dunkman]

I think we probably have to push, but I wouldn't be happy about it.

[RobertJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused.
[ QUOTE ]
Calls loosely preflop (way too loosely, w/ bad hands)

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
after ~ 70 hands of data he was ~ a 11/9.


[/ QUOTE ]



[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was confused by that too.

What I mean is that I caught him twice making some weird call from a shallow stack with A2o from the SB or something like that, but his stats were 11/9. I guess it's short-term variance for him to have those stats.

[Tackleberry]

I´ld push this, your M is low, you have to make a move to get a chance to get deeper into the money. The difference between the 8th and the 7th place feels not this great ...

[RobertJohn]

[ QUOTE ]
You're hand is pretty strong against his range, you're shortstack with 10bb and at least a little bit of FE. I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
you need to make a move

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
we probably have to push

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Given that we do have FE when he holds some crappy hand (or decent hand he doesn’t want to call with), I thought I had to push too.

PROS:

· My hand is strong for the situation (facing a CO raise from the stack most likely to be raising junk [at least, theoretically the most likely)

· My hand is suited (adds a little equity if I get called)

· He’s getting 1.5-to-1, so if he has trash it’s not like he’s getting great odds (close though for a big stack)

· I’m sandwiched between two of the biggest stacks at the table so my position is not that great (meaning I might be more willing to push marginal, close plays)

CONS:

· He is the biggest stack and thus he might be more willing to make a call with a hand that the other Villains would fold.

· My stats said he was a 11/9.

· He is raising into two of the biggest stacks in the blinds

· I have a read contradicting his stats that says he calls loosely and overplays his hands preflop

· There is some value in surviving at this stage b/c of the pay jumps.


I’m getting 1.15-to-1 on my shove if he calls, which means I need at least 47% equity to break even (if he calls everytime).

If he calls me with: 55+,AJs+,AJo+, my equity = 39.357%

My expectation =

(-25720)(.6064)+(29520)(.3936) = <u>-3 977.536 </u>

How much FE do I need so that my play becomes +EV?

X(7800)+(1-X)(-3977.536) &gt; 0

X &gt; 34% just to break-even.

If he calls with something like 55+ and AJ+, he needs to be raising a quarter of the time in that spot just for me to break-even (with this calling range).

This might be a reasonable assumption for a typical huge stack in a tourney, but those stats kind of threw me off.

Since it’s close, might this be the time to fold and “wait for a better spot?”

[Tackleberry]

Nice calculation ... but shouldn´t this

[ QUOTE ]
My expectation =

(-25720)(.6064)+(29520)(.3936) = <u>-3 977.536 </u>


[/ QUOTE ]

be (-25720)(.6064)+(28520)(.3936) = <u>-4371,136</u>?

And further ...

[ QUOTE ]
X &gt; 34% just to break-even.

If he calls with something like 55+ and AJ+, he needs to be raising a quarter of the time in that spot just for me to break-even (with this calling range).


[/ QUOTE ]

I don´t get this ... if you assume 55+, AJ+, we are speaking about a calling-range of about 8%. If he should fold 34% of his original raising-range, than he just has to raise with about 12% of his hands. This seems extremely (for not to say unrealistically) tight, given his position.

If you indeed assume a raising-range of about 17% (66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+) your push gets fairly +EV.

Or am I wrong here? It´s quite early in the morning in Germany and I did not get my coffee yet ... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Tackleberry]

Ah ... here is my final calculation (assuming that he calls 45.7 percent of his original raising range):

EV = (0,543*7000) + 0,457* [(-25720)*(0,6064) + (28720)*(0,3936)] = <u>5640,366</u>

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
CONS:

· He is the biggest stack and thus he might be more willing to make a call with a hand that the other Villains would fold

· There is some value in surviving at this stage b/c of the pay jumps.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first is a huge plus, you don't mind him calling wide since you've got a good hand and want to double up. As for surviving for a payjump or two. It's true you do win money for every person that is knocked out but you win so much more money when you double and can contend for the top couple of spots.

For the EV calc. He's not folding KQ or AT here and may not be minraising his premiums so your equity is no worse than 46% here and closer to 55% if he's not minraising with QQ+, AK. So worst case scenario you're barely worse than breakeven when he calls.