WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

[MUD]

I've been moved to his tables 3 orbits ago. 2 orbits ago I had open-raised his BB from CO with 75s to 800 on 150/300 ante 25 and he folded after setting out the chips to call. 2 hands ago I raised from SB with A10 and folded to a weird reraise from BB of 5000 of his 8000 remaining chips(I guess thats another hand I could post). I took about 2 minutes deciding that one and the whole table could tell i liked my hand. Other than those 2 hands I'd raised one time more

So 150/300 ante 25
HL ~18000
Me ~22000

Folds to me in CO, I raise to 900(note that its 100 more than 2 orbits ago, which I did for no reason) with A10s. folds to HL who again gathers the chips to call after 30 seconds of thinking then thinks for another 30 seconds(he's not looking at me) and grabs 2200 more for a reraise and makes that his action. I ... fold, call, reraise to ~6000- fold to a shove, or shove?

[potamophobia]

I would probably just fold. I am assuming howard is probably considered the best player at your table, and I dont see much reason to get in a big pot with him here. Granted you are in position, but AT can be a very dangerous hand to play here imo.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been moved to his tables 3 orbits ago. 2 orbits ago I had open-raised his BB from CO with 75s to 800 on 150/300 ante 25 and he folded after setting out the chips to call. 2 hands ago I raised from SB with A10 and folded to a weird reraise from BB of 5000 of his 8000 remaining chips(I guess thats another hand I could post). I took about 2 minutes deciding that one and the whole table could tell i liked my hand. Other than those 2 hands I'd raised one time more

So 150/300 ante 25
HL ~18000
Me ~22000

Folds to me in CO, I raise to 900(note that its 100 more than 2 orbits ago, which I did for no reason) with A10s. folds to HL who again gathers the chips to call after 30 seconds of thinking then thinks for another 30 seconds(he's not looking at me) and grabs 2200 more for a reraise and makes that his action. I ... fold, call, reraise to ~6000- fold to a shove, or shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. The only 2 chances it was folded to you in the cutoff, you have raised. He figures your range includes 75s (which it does!) and maybe worse. There is a decent chance he is restealing here.

He may well have a middle pocket pair. Whatever he has, you can expect a lead bet by Howard on the flop if you smooth call, negating your positional advantage. With 15K left and 6.5K in the pot, he probably bets 4K on the flop -- something he can get away from if you push the flop and he feels he is beat.

You are getting 2:1 on the call with a 2:1 shot of hitting your A or T, if both are live. You may only have 3 outs if he has a big pair or big ace. But I think his range is much wider here.

Pushing all in gives him 21.5:15 odds. He would need 41% against your range. You have some fold equity. But it's a risky play.

I probably call. If I miss the flop and fold to his bet, I might show the ace and say something like, "I nearly pushed preflop, but I felt it was too soon to race." Show him you weren't "stealing" this time so you can steal later.

[betgo]

I would push. At worst you are a 2-1 dog. You have a good hand for a CO raise.

[8Adam8]

The 3bet is to 3000?

In these spots I immediately think "we are deep enough to call in position and abuse him postflop"

So yeah, I like a call.

[MUD]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push. At worst you are a 2-1 dog. You have a good hand for a CO raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of Folding Equity to do you guys think he have in this situation against a big name pro?

Any chance he folds 9s, AJ, AQ, or even Js?

[NoahSD]

Adam,
I really don't think we're anywhere near deep enough to call.

MUD,
I assume he instamucks 99/AJ/AQ to a shove. So, yeah.. shove.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Adam,
I really don't think we're anywhere near deep enough to call.

MUD,
I assume he instamucks 99/AJ/AQ to a shove. So, yeah.. shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think HL instamucks AQ/99 to a shove, but he may muck them. He also may be bluffing or have a worse ace or pp than those.

If you flat call, there is about 7K in the pot and HL has about 15K. I don't know if you can really abuse him with position here, but the call may be playable. If you miss and HL pushes or bets big, you have to fold. In most cases though, you probbly should get your money in.

I think it is close between calling and pushing, but I would simplify things agaisnt a name player by pushing.

[0evg0]

Adam, I make stupid calls preflop after getting 3-bet more than anyone, but we need stacks to be like almost twice as big as they are now for us to be able to call.

Shoving is probably good, but it's just not something you can really decide with any certainty behind a computer against someone you've never played against, so...

[A_PLUS]

I am a little surprised that everyone is getting caught up with our hand here.


Lets say we shove.

He is getting 1.2 - 1, so he certainly doesn't have to call unless he reads you as weak. That would probably only come into play for hands like AJ-AQ, and some pairs .

So, his calling range doesn't include hands we are ahead of very often (really only when he reads us as weak).

Outside of the fact that us having an A limits the combos of AK-AJ that he could have. The strength of our hand is pretty meaningless here. Almost all of the EV of a shove comes from F.E.. Would we be so quick to shove KJ, or 75s here?

If you actually run through the hand logically, you will notice that unless is calling range is pretty wide, our EV is about the same with ATs and 75s. Meaning, a shove is a bluff most of the time.

BUT......
I like to use hand strength as a signal for when to pull a bluff like this. That way, it offers us some protection when someone has a much wider calling range that we expect.