Hatton/Castillo 6/23

[Tuds75]

Ricky Hatton: -184
Jose Luis Castillo: +174

I like Castillo in this one. Hatton has looked like a boring and different fighter his last few fights. Preferring to throw a couple punches at a time and then hold (actually very similar to what he did against Kotzya Tszyu), but against Tzsyu that was the right game plan to avoid Tszyu's straight right hand. Hatton seems to content to fight every fighter like this. I think he is being exposed as not the world-better he was made out to be after the Tszyu fight.

Castillo is a more comfortable weigh for him. Much like Cotto at 147, I think Castillo becomes a better fighter when dehydrating himself to make weight is not a concern. Castillo looked uneasy in his first 140 fight, but that was against a tough opponet. Hatton would have had problems with him too.

Hatton had a lot of trouble with Carlos Mussa. Mussa cutting both of Hatton's eyes with his hooks outside of Hatton's guard. Castillo doesn't have the same arm length as Mussa, but he also throws a better hook.

I see Hatton trying to get inside throw some punches and then look to hold Castillo, but Castillo is an inside fighter and that is where he makes a living. Hatton will come inside and learn real fast with a couple uppercuts and left hooks that he will take a beating if he keeps trying to get inside on Castillo. Hatton can not box from the outside, so he will probably get in harm's way and take his lumps trying to work his way in on Castillo. I see Castillo showing his size (2 1/2 inches taller and 4-5 inches on reach) to move Hatton around. Hatton's eyes have some serious scar tissue and I expect Castillo to open Hatton up and the fight to be stopped due to Hatton's cuts.

The Castillo by KO/TKO/DQ +681 (dropped from close to +800) is a good bet to suppliment Castillo at +174

Enjoy the Fight

Tuds

[Post-Oak]

Tuds, thanks for posting. I always look forward to your boxing analysis.

I have to disagree with several of the points you make though.

[ QUOTE ]
Castillo is a more comfortable weigh for him. Much like Cotto at 147, I think Castillo becomes a better fighter when dehydrating himself to make weight is not a concern. Castillo looked uneasy in his first 140 fight, but that was against a tough opponet. Hatton would have had problems with him too.


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This is where I mostly disagree. There is no evidence that Castillo will be better at 140 than he was at 135. Cotto does look great at 147, and did from the very beginning of his move up. Castillo has one fight under his belt, and as you point out he looked bad.

I wouldn't consider Ngoudjo to be that tough of a test. It was only his 16th pro fight when he fought Castillo, and he has looked vulnerable in the past. He was hurt in the twelfth round against Emanuel Augustus (30-25-6 at the time of their bout), but managed to hold on for a 116-111, 115-112, 115-112 UD. All boxing fans know that Augustus is much better than his horrific record would indicate, but at this point his reputation for being a tough out is so overblown that he is actually extremely over rated. Augustus is not close to world class.

Ngoudjo just fought on June 8th. He won a tough SD against Randall Bailey. Actually, many journalists said he clearly lost. So if he has trouble against the likes of Bailey and Augustus while fighting in his hometown of Montreal, then Hatton would surely blow him out of the building.

Many people actually think that Castillo's performance against Ngoudjo points to him being somewhat shot. I think that Castillo's horrific performance against Ngoudjo was mostly due to a bad stylistic matchup, but also think that the move up to 140 also played a part. Castillo was a big, strong, bullying lightweight but now he is fighting guys closer to his own strength.

Also, it is very possible that he is on the downward slope of his career. Castillo went pro at 16 years old, and he is now 33. He has been in some tough fights, and his all out war with Corrales is the kind of fight that can destroy a career. His sudden inability to make 140 can also be a sign of his body beginning to break down. He is definitely past his prime; there is no doubt about that.

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Hatton had a lot of trouble with Carlos Mussa. Mussa cutting both of Hatton's eyes with his hooks outside of Hatton's guard. Castillo doesn't have the same arm length as Mussa, but he also throws a better hook.


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Hatton had no problem at all with Maussa, although he was bleeding badly (and I think head clashes caused the cuts). Maussa, is a big, physical light welter (although unskilled) and Hatton basically steam rolled him. He was never hurt, and Maussa can hit (as Vivian Harris found out). He also has a great chin (as Vivian Harris found out), and Hatton simply laid him out with that left half hook.

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I see Hatton trying to get inside throw some punches and then look to hold Castillo, but Castillo is an inside fighter and that is where he makes a living. Hatton will come inside and learn real fast with a couple uppercuts and left hooks that he will take a beating if he keeps trying to get inside on Castillo.


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Even as someone who expects Hatton to win, I agree that this could happen. Castillo has a great left hook, and he is really effective with those uppercuts too. Those double left hooks to body/head could be too much for Hatton. Hatton seemed to get hurt to the body against Urango.

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Hatton can not box from the outside, so he will probably get in harm's way and take his lumps trying to work his way in on Castillo. I see Castillo showing his size (2 1/2 inches taller and 4-5 inches on reach) to move Hatton around.


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Hatton has beaten guys who are simply beasts (in regards to size and strength) at light welter, and even beat a welterweight champion. Castillo is not even close to the biggest or strongest guy that Hatton has been up against, and Hatton will be the stronger man.

I think you are right that the reach could be a significant advantage for Castillo. Hatton is only 5'6" and has really short arms. Hatton has been up against a lot of guys who have reaches longer than Castillo, but most were relatively unskilled guys like Urango and Maussa. Collazo's reach was definitely an issue when Hatton stepped up to 147.

This will only be a problem though if you are right that Hatton can not effectively fight Castillo from the inside, because Castillo will be willing to lean into Hatton and fight in the proverbial phone booth anyway.

And I think that Hatton will in fact be able to fight on the inside with Castillo. Hatton has a truly world class chin, and he is a smart fighter. He won't be dumb like Corrales, leaning against Castillo and just trading bombs, with no regard for defense.

Hatton knows how to push the pace by aggressively attacking, but he also knows how to push the pace by clinching, pushing and wrestling (which can exhaust an opponent since Hatton's stamina and strength is usually so superior).

My own prediction is that Hatton will be too strong and too busy for Castillo. Hatton can really wear you down with his furious pace and rough house tactics. He really pushes people to their limits, and I just don't think Castillo will be able to handle him at 140.

Hatton is very strong physically, and all of the wrestling is designed to wear his opponents down. He should be able to push Castillo around the ring. On top of this, he does throw a lot of punches and has good hand speed and decent power. He punches from many different angles, can bang with both hands and works the body well. This is how he wears people down and stops them.

I also think you underestimate his boxing ability. While he may not be a pure boxer, he does have fast, accurate hands and a very good sense of timing and distance. He is very good at getting off first. He is very good at closing the distance, and is not just a simple brawler.

Another thing to consider is that while Castillo has fought higher caliber opponents than Hatton, those fights were at 135. I think Hatton would steamroll guys like Corrales, Casamayor or Julio Diaz (all great lightweights). On the other hand, I don't see Castillo beating Tszyu or Collazo (a welterweight!). In fact, after his horrific showing versus limited Ngoudjo, I can't see him dominating Urango or Maussa the way Hatton did.

I am worried about Castillo's left hooks and uppercuts though. As you point out, Castillo is so good at the in-fighting. The left hook (both to the body and head) is what really worries me. This is why I haven't bet on Hatton. I guess the price is about right IMO. I will be watching this line, looking to bet on Hatton if it falls to the -150 range.

My prediction is that this is going to be a highly entertaining fight, with lots of action. I think Hatton wears Castillo down and stops him late or wins a clear UD.

Every boxing fan is looking forward to this one.

[rush66]

Damn, thanks post-oak extremely insightful post.

[Savant]

Great post 'post oak' also spot on analysis.

tuds 'tut-tut'

[Hoya]

I was going to post something disagreeing with Tuds, but Post-Oak did a way, way, way better job than I ever would have. I totally agree that the physical advantages Castillo used to bully fighters at 135 will be ineffective against Hatton, who I hit at -180.

[Tuds75]

Post-Oak,
Hey man I love it when someone replies to my post and goes against my prediction. I need to that other side of the argument to better shape my prediction. Also it usually brings up a thing of two I might have missed on my first analysis.

I just got a few problems with some of the things you wrote.

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I wouldn't consider Ngoudjo to be that tough of a test. It was only his 16th pro fight when he fought Castillo, and he has looked vulnerable in the past.

Ngoudjo just fought on June 8th. He won a tough SD against Randall Bailey. Actually, many journalists said he clearly lost. So if he has trouble against the likes of Bailey and Augustus while fighting in his hometown of Montreal, then Hatton would surely blow him out of the building.

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First Ngoudjo has 16 pro fights which just means he is still Raw and improving as a fighter after each fight and probably during some fights he is becoming a better fighter. So that is nothing to hold against Castillo or Ngoudjo.
I watched Herman Ngoudjo v. Randall Bailey a few weeks ago and while the fight was close, There is now way to say that Randall clearly won. It was a fight of 2 halves. Bailey used his power and precision to win th first half, but completely faded in the second half of the fight. Bailey best can in rounds 1-4 where he was able to rock Herman, but Herman showed superior condition when he was throwing combos at the final 2 rounds while Bailey looked to be gassed. It was a close fight, but in no way can ANYONE say Bailey clearly won.

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Many people actually think that Castillo's performance against Ngoudjo points to him being somewhat shot. I think that Castillo's horrific performance against Ngoudjo was mostly due to a bad stylistic matchup,

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I agree, but you contradicted yourself here. You said Ngoudjo should have been a pushover for Castillo, and then in this paragraph you give credit to Ngoudjo.


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Hatton had no problem at all with Maussa, although he was bleeding badly (and I think head clashes caused the cuts). Maussa, is a big, physical light welter (although unskilled) and Hatton basically steam rolled him. He was never hurt, and Maussa can hit (as Vivian Harris found out). He also has a great chin (as Vivian Harris found out), and Hatton simply laid him out with that left half hook.

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Have you watched Hatton/Mussa? Hatton did have trouble with Mussa. Those cuts above BOTH of Hatton's eyes were from Mussa hooks and not 'butts. Mussa was landing on Hatton at a good clip (Hatton was landing his own fair shots). I had Hatton winning at the stoppage, but Mussa was holding his own and catching Hatton with those hooks. I think Mussa's punches weren't hurting Hatton as much as Hatton's punches were hurting Mussa, but Mussa was cutting Hatton with them. Also that fight you knew Hatton was going to catch Mussa with a hook and end it and you were just waiting for it to happen, so it made it seem like Hatton was blowing Mussa out (That is how I saw the fight the first time, but after rewatching it is a very good back and fourth fight).


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Hatton has beaten guys who are simply beasts (in regards to size and strength) at light welter, and even beat a welterweight champion. Castillo is not even close to the biggest or strongest guy that Hatton has been up against, and Hatton will be the stronger man.

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Now I think Collazo beat Hatton. Look at Hatton's face afterwards. Swelling cuts all over the place. Hatton started the fight like a world-beater, but then ended the fight barely even able to stand-up. Hatton was stumbling around the ring like a whino looking for something to keep him from falling over. Now this could have been from a punch from the light hitting Collazo or I guess it was more from fatigue, but either way Hatton was lucky to get the Win in that fight. Castillo has fought Chico Corrales who moved up 2 weight classes when he left 135, that goes to show how big he was a 135, he couldn't even move up to the next class he was so big he made a 2 class jump. Also Castillo has fought Pretty Boy Floyd twice. Floyd was a KO fighter at that weight class and Castillo went 24 rounds with him. So Castillo has fought some naturally bigger guys with big power and held his own with them.

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I also think you underestimate his boxing ability. While he may not be a pure boxer, he does have fast, accurate hands and a very good sense of timing and distance. He is very good at getting off first. He is very good at closing the distance, and is not just a simple brawler.

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I am sorry if I came across to much with this thought on Hatton. Hatton is a quality fighter. You don't get his record and be a 2 division champ without having some skill (expect if your are Ricardo Mayorga). Hatton is a very good boxer. He has ultra fast hand speed and has a nice left hook which has some serious power. He also has one of the best body attacks in boxing. I didn't mean to make it sound like Hatton is some bum who likes to wrestle and is making a career off of a couple lucky punches (Hashim Rachman). Sorry for the confusion.

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I don't see Castillo beating Tszyu.

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Tsyzu/Castillo now that would be a GREAT fight. Remember styles make fights. Hatton had the perfect style for Tszyu while I think some one with real fast hands and good footwork would be the worst stylistic match-up for Hatton.


No disrespect Post-Oak I always look forward to your boxing post, but I just say some corrections/rebutels I needed to post. I don't bet on the fight since Pinny kicked out Americans, so Good Luck man I hope you cash a ticket and hope we both get a good to enjoy.

Tuds

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
First Ngoudjo has 16 pro fights which just means he is still Raw and improving as a fighter after each fight and probably during some fights he is becoming a better fighter. So that is nothing to hold against Castillo or Ngoudjo.


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I don't agree. It is something to hold against Castillo. In his first fight at 140, he fought a raw, unproven prospect and won a razor thin 115-113, 115-133, 113-115 SD.

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I watched Herman Ngoudjo v. Randall Bailey a few weeks ago and while the fight was close, There is now way to say that Randall clearly won... It was a close fight, but in no way can ANYONE say Bailey clearly won.


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First off, I didn't see this fight. I was looking forward to it because Ngoudjo is a prospect, but even moreso because I wanted to try to gain some insight into just how bad Castillo's performance against Ngoudjo was. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch it.

I still can disagree with what you say here though because some people did think Bailey won. He lost the fight 112-115 on one of the judges scorecards.

Here's an article about the fight from East Side Boxing where they author states:
"In fact, Ngoudjo looked essentially one-dimensional, slow and for the most part, unskilled compared to Bailey, 32, who appeared to have easily won the fight. However, the bout was in Canada, Ngoudjo’s new home, and the result wasn’t so shocking when taking account of that."

http://www.eastsideboxing.com/news.p...259&more=1

Now I don't expect you to agree with this guy's analysis, but some people did think that Bailey clearly won the fight.

More articles:

"The Boxing Times scorecard had Bailey winning 115-113."

http://www.boxingtimes.com/analyses/...jo_bailey.html

"It wasn’t larceny - as in hometown (crooked) cooking - nor was it three blind mice doing the math - still, what came through loud and clear is a system needin’ fixin’ - we’re talking here about last noche’s ESPN Ngoudjo-Bailey IBF jr. welter eliminator."

http://www.braggingrightscorner.com/...ley060907.html

That's the first three relevant articles you'll see if you google "Bailey Ngoudjo".

Anyway, let's just agree to say it was a close fight. Ngoudjo's stock has certainly fallen in any case.

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I agree, but you contradicted yourself here. You said Ngoudjo should have been a pushover for Castillo, and then in this paragraph you give credit to Ngoudjo.


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I don't think Ngdoujo is a bum. He's about on the level of Randall Bailey. I think part of the reason Castillo looked so bad is that he just didn't match up well with Ngoudjo's earmuff defensive style. Even considering the bad matchup, Castillo's future at 140 still has to be called into question off of that performance.

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Have you watched Hatton/Mussa? Hatton did have trouble with Mussa. Those cuts above BOTH of Hatton's eyes were from Mussa hooks and not 'butts. Mussa was landing on Hatton at a good clip (Hatton was landing his own fair shots). I had Hatton winning at the stoppage, but Mussa was holding his own and catching Hatton with those hooks. I think Mussa's punches weren't hurting Hatton as much as Hatton's punches were hurting Mussa, but Mussa was cutting Hatton with them. Also that fight you knew Hatton was going to catch Mussa with a hook and end it and you were just waiting for it to happen, so it made it seem like Hatton was blowing Mussa out (That is how I saw the fight the first time, but after rewatching it is a very good back and fourth fight).


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I have this fight on DVD and watched it a couple of days ago. The cuts were from bumping heads. From USA Today:

"Hatton sustained a deep cut above his left eye when the two fighters clashed heads in the first minute of the scheduled 12-round bout. Another cut was opened over Hatton's right eye when they collided in the third."

The cuts were deep, and they did bleed a lot. Hatton won every single round before KOing Maussa in the 9th. It's true he got hit, but he walked right through every shot. He completely and totally dominated the outclassed Maussa.

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Now I think Collazo beat Hatton. Look at Hatton's face afterwards. Swelling cuts all over the place. Hatton started the fight like a world-beater, but then ended the fight barely even able to stand-up. Hatton was stumbling around the ring like a whino looking for something to keep him from falling over.


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You are not the only one to say Callazo won that fight. I thought Hatton definitely did win though. So did most people. The scores were 115-112, 115-112, 114-113 so it was a close but unanimous decision. I agree that Hatton looked bad in the last round. I think he was fatigued. My opinion is that he is used to bullying opponents and wearing them down, but it didn't work because Collazo is a welterweight. Hatton will probably not ever fight at 147 again.

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Castillo has fought Chico Corrales who moved up 2 weight classes when he left 135, that goes to show how big he was a 135, he couldn't even move up to the next class he was so big he made a 2 class jump.


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Actually, it goes to show just how washed up he was that he had to jump two weight classes. Corrales started his career at 130. In fact, he fought about 40 times at 130 and only 4 times as a lightweight (including the time he couldn't make weight). So he was in fact a superfeatherweight and to say he was anywhere close in size to the guys Hatton has fought is ludicrous. His one bout at 147 was of course a disaster as Clottey was simply to strong for him.

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Also Castillo has fought Pretty Boy Floyd twice. Floyd was a KO fighter at that weight class and Castillo went 24 rounds with him. So Castillo has fought some naturally bigger guys with big power and held his own with them.


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Again, Floyd is another 130 pounder. He only moved up to 135 because Floyd just goes for the money. He only fought 4 times at 135, before moving up to 140. For his first 23 fights he was a superfeatherweight/junior lightweight (130). In 4 fights at 135, he had 1 KO (Victoriano Sosa also went the distance with him). He was a good puncher at 130, but now he can only KO overmatched opponents who take clean punch after clean punch. He simply does not have KO power.

Another guy that Castillo went 24 rounds with was Stevie Johnston. First he won the title by beating him in a majority decision. In the rematch, he managed a draw. In all honesty, Hatton would probably KO the lightweight version of Stevie Johnston (the current light welter version of Johnston is so shopworn that there is no "probably" about it).

I am not trying to disparage Castillo's record because he was the best in the world at 135 (after Floyd's brief stopover during his ridiculous climb to 154 was over). I am just providing a counter argument to the idea that Castillo's pedigree is far superior to Hatton's, because I think it is important that the light welterweight Hatton would have beaten each and every one of Castillo's lightweight opponents as well (not counting Mayweather).

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No disrespect Post-Oak I always look forward to your boxing post, but I just say some corrections/rebutels I needed to post.

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I agree with you that it is good to have debate. We will all benefit. I think you do have a lot of valid points, and I certainly won't be shocked if Castillo looks great and wins the fight. Obviously, we do disagree on many points though.

I'm glad you post here, because I have only noticed a handful of big boxing fans who give analysis here and you are probably the most profilic of those posters. A lot of times I don't bother to reply if I see a post and I essentially agree with the analysis.

[Post-Oak]

Also, I made a bet on a prop from 5Dimes.

any KO is a winner, only Harold Lederman's scorecard used

Hatton points handicap (Lederman) -2½ -110

Lederman's scoring has momentum; he picks a guy he thinks is gonna win and scores every close round for that guy. Often he starts off on the wrong guy, miscoring the first couple of rounds because he comes into the fight with a certain preconception. Once he turns though, it's like a runaway train and every round will be scored for the guy who is controlling the fight.

[Tuds75]

Lederman and the other HBO guys (Lampley and Merchant) are all about punch volume and how is landing more. They tend to score fights on who is landing and throwing more and overlook the damage each punch does. Case in point Barrera/Marquez. They were shocked Barrera didn't win, but if you watch the fight with the volume off, its clear to see who won. I have noticed recently judges are paying for credence to quality of punches over quanity. This favors heavy hitters, but Castillo and Hatton are both it.

Post Oak, we both got a little off topic there talking about previous fights and controversial DEC, lets try drop it because we both know how fast a thread can get off topic on 2+2.

Also please post more. Even if you agree with mine or another's analysis. I quit posting for a while because I would never get any replies to my posts, so I figured what the bother, but if you and other are reading them, but don't respond I just figure my work in analyzing and writing up for the fight are going unnoticed and unappreciated.

I enjoy the back and fourth. Is 5Dimes the only site you bet boxing? I am looking for site that offers lots of boxing lines and decent (nothing beats pinny).

Tuds

[rush66]

Yea, you guys both made great points. Only thing is, I dont know who to bet now.