bluffing vs l/p, calling station, shortstack (pp200)

[josh_x]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $539.65
BB: $277.50
UTG: $207.05
Hero (CO): $336.75
BTN: $60.40

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain was very loose and passive. I had played with him 24 hands and his stats were 42/8/0. The one hand were we tangled was a few minutes ago (before i quite knew his style) and went: Utg raises to 8, i make it 27, he cold calls with AKs on button. utg folds. Flop 6s8s9, i bet 3/4ish, he calls, turn checkcheck, river A, i bet smallish he calls</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, BTN calls $8.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15.00</font>, BTN calls $15.00

Turn: ($49) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40.00</font>,


And i don't expect him to fold A-high. Good or bad?

[Nick Royale]

What's your hand in the other hand? AQ? AK?

This is bad and meet every criteria for when not to 2nd barrel. The board hasn't changed, he's even more likely to call with Ax. Some players call very many flops to fold the turn (fold to flop bet, fold to turn bet is goods stats to look at), but unless you have a read like that the 2nd barrel here against a calling station is just awfull.

I even think this is a flop where you don't have to c-bet. The way to make moneys against calling station is not by raising preflop and c-bet Q-high on low paired boards. I've struggled with these situation oop against stations and I've lowered my c-betting standards a lot, otherwise you easily end up spewing. Now when you did and he called a big c-bet just c/f.

[SilentNoise]

dont bluff calling stations.

[lank4ever]

Board: 4h 5s 4d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.896% 09.71% 03.19% 957 314.00 { Qc8c }
Hand 1: 87.104% 83.92% 03.19% 8271 314.00 { 44+, A2s+, 75s, 64s+, A2o+ }

This = 21.6% of possible preflop hands
x=% of time hands he calls flop and fold turn
So 21.6% you lose 37 - 12.5 x (37+49). x you gain 49

.216 * 37 - .216 * .125 * 86 = 49x

x = 11.5% of the time he must call the flop and fold the turn for breakeven EV.

So he must call the flop 33.1% of the time for you to be breakeen
this range is 33% { 44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, 86o+, 76o, 65o }

He must call the preflop and the flop with 78, 86, 67, 22, 33, K9s+, K10o+, Q9s+, Q10s+, and J10s EVERY SINGLE TIME to make this breakeven.

[josh_x]

WRT flop, my thoughts were basically he's gonna call me tonnes here, and with all sorts of [censored] that didn't hit the flop at all, like KJ or whatever. So i can either check the flop and basically give up there, or bet the flop and then be prepared to bet more to get him to fold his random [censored]. So on the flop i kinda of thought of it as a value bet because he's gonna fold later (although he was a calling station, i didn't expect him to call with &lt; Ahigh)

Also, if he calls me on the turn i usually have some outs.

When i thought of the earlier hand i thought "well if he's willing to call with a super dirty ace high in that spot, then surely he'll call with any pair draw in this smaller, dryer, pot". So i put his range at not much worse than almost any 2 cards. (guess i shouldn't have con bet, oh well, i didn't think good)

I considered checking the turn, intending to fold if he bets, and to push the river if he checks behind. But this way probably encourages calls form ace high, and denies me the chance to suck out.

In the other hand i had AA, i can't remeber the exact details but i got pf right, and that he called a flop bet with nada.

sorry that post was all over the place

ps, silentnoise, the fact that he's a lp calling station is what makes this hand fun, your advice is kinda ldo