line moves for mlb totals

[136913691369]

If a game opens at o/u 9.5 -105 and moves to o/u 10 -105 (and stays at 10 until gametime) which are you more likely to play; the over or under?

Please include your reasoning as well.

[crockpot]

why would anyone base their decision primarily on this line move?

[maidenguy]

If I didn't get it at over 9 1/2 I would lay off. I wouldn't want to lay 1/2 run on the over at the same vig I could of gotten earlier.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
If I didn't get it at over 9 1/2 I would lay off. I wouldn't want to lay 1/2 run on the over at the same vig I could of gotten earlier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if through capping you still see a 5% edge against that line?

[maidenguy]

Whip,you're right, it still could be a play at 10 thru capping but playing the game at the same vig and laying 1/2 run more will cost in the long run. I would bet it at 10 if I was getting it at +115 or more but not at -105.
Also I would maybe play the 10 if I thought the line might go higher or at at worser vig, for ex., if it goes to Ov10-130, then grabbing it at -105 would be OK.

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Whip,you're right, it still could be a play at 10 thru capping but playing the game at the same vig and laying 1/2 run more will cost in the long run. I would bet it at 10 if I was getting it at +115 or more but not at -105.
Also I would maybe play the 10 if I thought the line might go higher or at at worser vig, for ex., if it goes to Ov10-130, then grabbing it at -105 would be OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obviously totally irrelevant if you cannot use a time machine to go back to the previous line. Many good bets had been a little better at some time before you took them.


Anyway, if the line movement is the only info I have, I just pass. The fact that the line was soft before the move does not imply anything about the new line it could be even an overreaction.

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
if the line movement is the only info I have, I just pass. The fact that the line was soft before the move does not imply anything about the new line it could be even an overreaction.

[/ QUOTE ]

[136913691369]

What I was really trying to get at is... What's more important, the fact that you are getting a better number then the books initally put out or that sharps were probably pounding the over 9.5 causing it to move to 10.

so what's more important: the better # (under 10)or being on the "sharp" side (over 10). Ofcourse sharps might only want the over 9.5 and pass on over 10.

[kaboshedx]

i think you just answered your own thread in that very last sentence. it depends on what you determine to be the reasoning behind the line move, the value may now be on the under but more information is required.

[ImStillBen]

market >>>>> linesmakers