10NL (9Max): River value bet? or bluff?

[Jay.Yang]

Villain seems weak-loose.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 ($4.25)
MP2 ($9.60)
CO ($3.65)
Button ($9.65)
SB ($19.40)
BB ($6.30)
Hero ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($3.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.85) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.5</font>, BB calls $0.50.

Turn: ($1.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($1.85) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>...


I was ready to give-up after he call my Flop bet. But then he check to me twice on Turn and River make me tempting to make River bet here no matter what I am holding because I think there's a good chance that he'll fold. Correct?

[SABR42]

I hate it.

The board is pretty dry on the flop, so he needs something to call you.

An ace is never folding on the river to that, and a jack may look you up as well if he's loose-passive.

[techrush]

Personally i dont think you need to make these kind of calls at this level (or any level?) so id just let it go.

I have a question about the preflop raise though. I know ive read some of the more aggressive players are raising every pocket pair at 6max. Is this +ev in FR ? I tend to limp my small pocket pairs and play them for sets only....

appologize ahead of time if this is considered a "hijack"

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate it.

The board is pretty dry on the flop, so he needs something to call you.

An ace is never folding on the river to that, and a jack may look you up as well if he's loose-passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt any pair folds here given what Ive seen at the level

[Larude]

I think it is a mistake to bet out here, he surely will call in that spot with every ace and probably something like JT or QJ (I don't think they really understand the fact of potcontrol, so you could have an ace decent kicker or something like KK, QQ) and even queens (fearing your ace). You might get him off a really weak J and really weak 6 or somekind of middlepair but that's only part of his range. If he was calling on the flop with KQ you beat him. If he is really as weak as you say, you might be better off firing again on the turn to convince him you have a strong ace. On the turn they can fold, the river not.

[deflY]

He will only call with a hand that beats you. Easy check behind.

[zyrrth]

You're probably gonna get called by almost every Jack and every Ace, also what's up with raising 33 utg?

[Specialwon]

I don't think I'd mind the pfr so much if everyone had the table had a full stack and the action was fast and loose. But here, you're not even set mining, you're trying to run a full scale bluff from the start. That raise says you have a very strong hand indeed. The trouble is, those kinds of bluffs just don't work at NL10, the donk in this hand has like A4 probably but he is not going to fold unless you do something insane like go all in on the flop (and even then he might look you up).

So, don't do it, OK. You are much better off just playing straightforward hands for value.

[threads13]

I don't think there is anything wrong with the raise. First off there is 3 short stacks, 1 medium stack, and 4 deep stacks. If he has a read that this table is playing a bit weak then he will be able to pick up a lot of pots on the flop with a c-bet.

On the flop he has position on a weak player. I believe it is a fine place for a c-bet if he is raising 33 UTG. He is expecting the weak player to lay down his hand here a huge majority of the time.

I think the key thing to know is what is this villains folding point? Meaning, if he calls the flop is he going the whole way generally? Or is it if he calls the turn? Most villains have some betting patterns like this.

Generally speaking, I think if you bet it is a bluff because you shouldn't expect the villain to call with a worse hand. I wouldn't expect him to call with K-high, for example, because I figure he would fold that on the flop, given your read. I would put him on some pair on the flop and I think he is calling with any pair here. So, I think the river is a check behind because I think it isn't going to get you value and you aren't going to get better hands to fold.

[zyrrth]

If you want to bluff here a better line would be to bet the turn and check/fold the river IMO. That's pretty much how I'd play an ace till the river and being an UTG raiser it's what you're representing.