(50NL) Turn OESD: Poor semi-bluff?

squashington · #1 06-20-2007, 03:20 PM

BB and I had both been playing standard TAG and he seemed capable of laying down solid hands. In retrospect I'm not sure how I feel about my turn raise. If he flat calls and I blank the river my only hope of winning the pot is he folds to my river shove. But getting over 5:1 I don't see him folding if it comes down to that.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($5.80)
Hero ($98.75)
SB ($54.35)
BB ($104.45)
UTG ($58.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $3.75.

Flop: ($11.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $7.5, Hero calls $7.50.

Turn: ($26.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero raises to $51.5

ChieftanMews · #2 06-20-2007, 04:03 PM

What about folding on the flop here?

Anyway, if he calls your turn raise I shutdown on the river, because I'm pretty sure he's not folding to your shove. I would only raise the turn here if villian has a high percentage of 3-barrels.

BevillTheDevil · #3 06-20-2007, 04:27 PM

if he is playin standard tag then your most likely behind pf so i might fold then buuuttt we are deep so i guess its ok...once i call tho im probably only lookin for set. If you think villian gives up on turns alot in these spots then you could maybe float and bet turn if shown weakness but thats probably gettin too fancy, id just fold the flop...but your turn line is spewy IMO, a standard tag is not takin this line w/o a set or overpair only hands your probably gettin a fold out of that probably play this way is JJ and AK

C4LL4W4Y · #4 06-20-2007, 04:30 PM

PF is standard, flop you should be folding. Floating is ok if there is some history, but the turn looks like you're getting value bet.

squashington · #5 06-20-2007, 05:20 PM

Folding flop was definitely the correct play. Reviewing the hand I'm wondering what enticed me to call the flop in the first place. Probably the deep stacks + position duo. I typically fold here without giving it a second thought.

On the turn I'm not that big an underdog to his range surprisingly. He'd probably have to fold over 40% of the time here for it to be a +EV play.(?) I don't think he's folding that often although he almost has to give me credit for a set or AQ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,816 games 0.031 secs 90,838 games/sec

Board: 4d 7c Qh 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.423% 38.42% 00.00% 1082 0.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 61.577% 61.58% 00.00% 1734 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Vyse · #6 06-20-2007, 05:22 PM

Perfectly fine if you think your FE is good. Very scary line from you.

gumpzilla · #7 06-20-2007, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Perfectly fine if you think your FE is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but debating if he'll fold is the whole point of the thread.

Since you're 200 BBs deep, I think this has a pretty strong chance of working, but I don't know. If he'll lay down AA here - and I probably would, in his shoes - then I think it's good, because 44 and 77 are probably somewhat less represented in his PF 3betting range.

Vyse · #8 06-20-2007, 05:42 PM

He's the one with the large read on villain, so there isn't much to say.

Disconnected · #9 06-20-2007, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perfectly fine if you think your FE is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but debating if he'll fold is the whole point of the thread.

Since you're 200 BBs deep, I think this has a pretty strong chance of working, but I don't know. If he'll lay down AA here - and I probably would, in his shoes - then I think it's good, because 44 and 77 are probably somewhat less represented in his PF 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could the same be true of the flop, though, by which I mean that if he's folding AA on the turn, he would fold it on the flop, and we should just raise the flop? Or does the flop call add a lot to our FE when we raise the turn?

For the hand, while I don't think calling is the right play, I think we're pretty close to it. Between the implied odds when we hit our straight or a set and the chance that we have the best hand already and villain is double-barreling with AK, what sorts of immediate pot odds do we need to just call the turn? I think I would take 3:1 (which I know we don't have here).

The more I think about the hand, the less decisive I get. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

gumpzilla · #10 06-20-2007, 06:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Could the same be true of the flop, though, by which I mean that if he's folding AA on the turn, he would fold it on the flop, and we should just raise the flop? Or does the flop call add a lot to our FE when we raise the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AA is less likely to fold the flop than the turn, given these lines, and so if you want a fold you're probably going to have to plan on committing all of your chips on the turn regardless anyway. That's true of this bluff, too, given the bet sizing - given the board I don't think we can fold if we get raised, since we'll be calling 40 or so into a pot of about 160. But we also know in this case that we'll have eight or ten outs when we do get called, which we wouldn't necessarily know if we commit to a big bluff on the flop.