Independent Trials v. Cumulative Stats

[DQuadfather]

Here’s a hypothetical. It’s the beginning of the second hour of a 2000-person MTT, you haven’t played a single hand, and you’ve been moved to a table with the eight tourney leaders. If I could set you up with AA pre-flop against a villain who has twice your chips and who was willing to call your all in, how many times in a row would you take my offer? Let’s say it's available up to eight times.

(I can already hear the accumulators laughing derisively.)

My problem with this question deals with the idea of independent trials vs. cumulative statistical computations. Sure, AA v. any random holding is an independent trial – that is, the likelihood of AA holding up is unaffected by its past performances; simply because it won seven times in row, for instance, doesn't mean it's more likely to lose on the eight trial. However, at some point doesn’t the statistical improbability of AA winning a fifth, sixth, seventh, or, God forbid, eighth time in a row factor into your strategy?

If your answer is no, does that mean you should push any edge, regardless of how thin it may be?

The bottom line: is there an optimal way to parlay favorites into tounry success, or do you just keep shoving like a tilt-monkey until it's hookers and pizza for yet another villian?

[Sherman]

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or do you just keep shoving like a tilt-monkey until it's hookers and pizza for yet another villian?

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Obviously you do this.

You are forgetting that after a double up or two, we don't have to worry about busting because we will become the chip leader. It is really silly to ever consider folding AA in your hypothetical situation.

[BlueEcho]

I take AA all 8 times

[Mingdu]

Using AA here obfuscates (haha) the main point.

To quote DN ... "In my opinion, playing deep stack tournaments with a somewhat kamikaze approach makes it difficult to win consistently, whereas, a player with a "small ball" approach like Ivey, myself, Hellmuth, Grinder, Tuan Le, Lindgren, Hansen, etc. will get to the final table more consistently by avoiding too many coin flip situations."

Now he mentions a big stack tourney and that is important ... the smaller the stacks in relation to blinds means you need to take smaller edges in a more aggressive fashion.

However

The more coin flips, when covered or even, the more certain it is you will crash out. AA four or five times in a row is likely to get cracked.

So we are clear, I'm not folding AA, ever ...

But the point is clear to me ... a 55% edge taken enough when covered or even will crash you out of a tourney.

You must pick your spots and use as much FE as you possibly can

[footnbaseball]

The thing about this is that if your AA holds up 8-10 times and you double up each time, depending on the size of the tournament, you will have won it. And I guarantee that playing all-in with AA every hand will net you more wins then any small ball player could pull off.

Of course this all kind of pointless, I'm just sayin is all.

[DQuadfather]

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You are forgetting that after a double up or two, we don't have to worry about busting because we will become the chip leader.

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No. Reread the parameters.

[DQuadfather]

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I take AA all 8 times

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You know what the probability is of winning with AA for an eight time in a row, right? You like those odds for your whole stack? (Remember: each time you're up against someone who can potentially elimiate you).

[HojoMofo]

each hand is an island unto itself mang. You take the huge edge you have. Especially in a 2k player tourney.

[BlueEcho]

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[ QUOTE ]
I take AA all 8 times

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You know what the probability is of winning with AA for an eight time in a row, right? You like those odds for your whole stack? (Remember: each time you're up against someone who can potentially elimiate you).

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If I get dealt AA 8 times in a row I'm going to be feeling immortal anyway so folding is obviously out of the question!

[DQuadfather]

[/ QUOTE ]If I get dealt AA 8 times in a row I'm going to be feeling immortal anyway so folding is obviously out of the question!

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lol.