Price is Right Probability Question

[Bigdaddydvo]

Hey everyone,

A good friend of mine was recently on the Price is Right. He was first to spin the big wheel, and spun a super solid 75 cents on the first spin. The next girl up spun an 80 to knock him out. I remarked what a bad beat it was, but I shortly realized afterwards that I had no idea how much of a favorite he was to move on. Help me figure this out.

For those of you who don't know TPIR wheel spin rules, there are 3 contestants that each spin the wheel. There are 20 possible spaces on the Big Wheel, each separated in increments of 5 cents each and ranging from 5 cents to 1 dollar. If unhappy with the first spin, the contestant may spin a second time. If they exeed a total of 1 dollar on the 2nd spin, they are automatically disqualified. The question is: Given these rules, and an opening spin of 75 cents that "stands pat" what is the probability that my friend "contestant #1" will move onto the showcase showdown?

[btmagnetw]

5/20 + 5/20 = 50%

[Bigdaddydvo]

[ QUOTE ]
5/20 + 5/20 = 50%

[/ QUOTE ]

How are you accounting for the second spin?

[btmagnetw]

whatever he gets on the first spin, 5 numbers on the second spin will give him >75

if he gets $.20, he needs 60, 65, 70, 75, 80.
if he gets $.70, he needs 10, 15, 20, 25, 30.

actually, 1/10 of the time he'll tie and win another 50% of the time, so his odds of winning are actually 55%, if i did everything right.

[tshort]

Odds of him winning:

Odds of spinner 2 winning:

5/20 + 1/20 (1/2) + 14/20(5/20 +1/20(1/2)) = .4675

Odds of him surviving spinner 2: .5325

Odds of surviving 2 spinners in a row: .5325 * .5325 = .284

[daman123]

what pricing game did he play and did he win it?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Was playing for a car. It was the one where you have to get all 5 digits right on the price of the car. He got 4 out of 5 correct the first try, but you only get one more try after that. There were 4 numbers, so he had a 1/4 shot and missed. Was a Ford Focus which would have been nice.

Would have been cooler to win his way up the first try, as that chick got to play Plinko.

[daman123]

cool story. i went twice, but never got picked. i think the game he played was one away where it starts with a 5 digit number for the car and the right digit is either one up or one down from the initial digit. then you ask them "ladies do i have at least x numbers right."

[Wyman]

Your friend was correct to stop at $0.75. See this thread for approximate optimal strategy.

Price is Right.