Basic question: can I call this profitably?

[jumbojacks]

Villain is a crazy aggro 30/28/5 who's 10 tabling. He seems very much like a thinking player though. I've been playing very tight (not sure if this is the best) and I've been 3betting him with a mixed range, sometimes tight and sometimes wide.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($134.15)
Hero ($126.40)
BB ($33.25)
UTG ($15.80)
MP ($105.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $10.

Flop: ($29) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $120.15</font>, Hero has $97.40 to call...

This is almost never 88+, though it could be AA/KK sometimes. I'm almost certain he has the nut flush draw and likely his other hole card is an overcard.

[gir]

Can you call that profitably? If you really think he's doing that with AKs, then sure...but even then, you're barely ahead. I fold this with ease. You 3-bet suited connectors to flop draws/straights/flushes, not single weak pairs.

Has he been calling a lot of your 3-bets? If so, I'd be more inclined to call. If not, just throw it away.

What you're really asking is, "Is villain playing back at me?" And...We couldn't say. You need the reads to make this call, there's no other way.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

you are either slightly ahead or way behind, giving yourself pretty low equity against his range. i think i find the fold here.

against flush draw w/ 2 overs we are behind (tho obv with dead money it would be a correct call):

7h 6h 484 48.89 506 51.11 0 0.00 0.489
Ac 9c 506 51.11 484 48.89 0 0.00 0.511

against say a set:

7h 6h 66 6.67 924 93.33 0 0.00 0.067
3c 3d 924 93.33 66 6.67 0 0.00 0.933

overpair:

7h 6h 232 23.43 758 76.57 0 0.00 0.234
Tc Td 758 76.57 232 23.43 0 0.00 0.766

yeah i think i find a fold.

[jumbojacks]

He calls *almost* all my 3bets, and it's almost his entire range that he calls when he opens on the button. I think his button stats are like 60/50 or something ridiculous like that over the last few hours.

I really need to balance and keep adjusting my 3bet range here for him to make it difficult to play against. He's called some of my 3bets w/ 75s and J2o.

In this spot, I almost KNOW he's drawing. I'm just not sure if I'm figuring out the math right. FWIW, he had Ac5c.

I close to insta-called knowing it's close to a coinflip, but thinking back I think its slightly -EV...

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I really need to balance and keep adjusting my 3bet range here for him to make it difficult to play against. He's called some of my 3bets w/ 75s and J2o.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, don't 3b this guy light

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

yeah im thinking if he is calling with such a wide range we dont want to be making this play preflop....

J2o &gt; 6h7h

[eigenvalue]

(1) If he calls 80% or more of your 3 bets, then it's a huge mistake to reraise with 76s.
(2) If you 3bet frequently, he has to call your 3bets with a wide range of his hands. He knows very well what he does! Be aware!
(3) Even if he is drwaing, you are only slightly ahead. You have to fold. Can you see how bad it is to reraise with low SCs if you get called frequently? You catched a pair but you still haven't the pot odds to continue!

[jumbojacks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really need to balance and keep adjusting my 3bet range here for him to make it difficult to play against. He's called some of my 3bets w/ 75s and J2o.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, don't 3b this guy light

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with not ever 3betting him light is that he's a thinking player. If I play very tight, he can play close to perfectly against me since I feel he can narrow my range too accurately. The problem is he's pretty good at using position to put pressure since he knows I can 3bet light sometimes he might just call loosely. I don't typically 3bet him light, but for every few times I 3bet him with a very tight range, I might throw in a random hand into my range.

[gir]

Replace 67s w/KQs for starters against this villain.

[Unknown Soldier]

he wont know that, these guys are filled with fps and will always think that you are playing back light (I am one of them, i know [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])