gettin greedy with KK

[jstill]

utg lag raises, hero 3 towns KK, loosie cold caps in HJ, rest fold 3 to the flop

flop 973
lag cks, hero cks, fishy bets, lag calls, hero cr's, lag calls, fish calls

turn 4
lag cks, hero bets, fishy raises, lag folds, hero 3 bets?.....

my one question is should he be more likely to take this flop turn line with AA 99 vs QQ JJ TT? TT seems less likely and we re only ahead of the rest 12:9. Its not quite a two to one proposal if he ll just call down with AA QQ and JJ but cap 99 (which probably isnt in his cold cap range?, he often calls 3 cold when he should muck but doesnt cold cap non capping hands from what ive seen of him), but either way seems im pushing a tiny, maybe non existant edge? How often do we guess people cap AA vs the turn 3bet here?

do we think fishy players ever find a good fold with a beaten hand here as well? thats gotta figure in. It seems close and I dont know exactly what assumptions to make to do an EV calc out explicitly.

Should the final answer here be when unsure go conservative and CD?

[secretprankster]

Looks close. Honestly I usually would just call down but it's certainly not clearcut. "Loose/fish" in these games don't cold-cap 99/TT that often in my experience so his hand range is pretty much JJ+, which a 3-bet is ~breakeven against. Since some players might not be raising the turn without kings or better, calling down looks to be the play. Definitely a spot where if you 3-bet he has aces and if you call down he has jacks.

[cboevey]

If you are beat you are putting in 2.5 big bets (turn raise, turn cap, river bet - discounted for when fish does not cap turn). If you are ahead you get about 1.5 big bets (turn raise, river bet - discounted somewhat for folds). Seems to me you need to be about 60% confident you are ahead of villian's range. You give it as 4:3 which is close especially if you alter my discounting based on your perception of villian. Since I'm risk averse I would just call down.

[sethypooh21]

Anyone for leading flop?

[yourface]

turn is dependent on how villain plays
if he can have <= JJ when he raises the turn then repop it

leading the flop is bad, we miss out on a sick c/r opportunity

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
turn is dependent on how villain plays
if he can have <= JJ when he raises the turn then repop it

leading the flop is bad, we miss out on a sick c/r opportunity

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are saying, this pot is big enough that I want to maximize my chances of winning it, and leading (hoping for fishy to raise to drive out lag boy) might do that best. Plus, I can B/3b if Lag boy comes along.

If positions were reversed (fishy is UTG, Lagboy is HJ), I lead every time.

[duckman]

I think you laid out the rationale for just CD in your OP.

[yourface]

hand protection would be nice, but does he fold anything we want him to with the pot being this big? maybe a bare ace