Haven't been this confused in a really long time

[aislephive]

Villain is 17/14 and seems very solid, a bit on the aggro side but nothing ridiculous. We don't have any history either.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $201.00
BB: $200.00
Hero (UTG): $356.92
CO: $187.00
BTN: $200.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $6.00

Flop: ($17) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $48.00</font>, Hero ???

[Speedlimits]

call

[tannenj]

if you hit a king you're probably getting his stack.

hitting a 9 isn't nearly as good.

i probably just fold.

edit: 79:34 = 2.32:1; hero is a little worse than 4:1 to hit on the turn, obviously

[creamdog]

fold, he likely has a set, he wouldn't call then raise the flop with much you are beating

[Speedlimits]

folding here is pretty exploitable.

[the machine]

if you actually think that your 2 overs are outs as well then i guess we could consider a push but there is about no way to determine that so i fold here.

[grando]

he might fold a lot of stuff you're ahead to a push (i.e. AJ/AT/QJ and any underpairs of course) and you have good equity vs hands like T9 and 98:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

69,300 games 0.016 secs 4,331,250 games/sec

Board: Js Tc 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.001% 34.08% 07.92% 23619 5487.50 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 57.999% 50.08% 07.92% 34706 5487.50 { QQ-88, AQs-ATs, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo, KQo }

this range is probably not wide enough, and if you put in air (low pps and stuff like 76s) and discount QQ I'd think a push is in order

[grando]

[ QUOTE ]
fold, he likely has a set, he wouldn't call then raise the flop with much you are beating

[/ QUOTE ]

a pair and straight draw does, a bluff does

[Barrin6]

Eh,
I was going to say call but then looking at the outs you have, the 9 is not a clean one. With that said, you are really only hoping for a King, anything else, you really are going to have a hard time once the Ace or queen hits. In addition to that, you are raising UTG, so when you do lead out for the flop bet, your range is going to look much smaller, thus for villain to check/raise here, he's going to have a strong hand. And with no prior history, this just makes it even more of a fold.

[creamdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold, he likely has a set, he wouldn't call then raise the flop with much you are beating

[/ QUOTE ]

a pair and straight draw does, a bluff does

[/ QUOTE ]

You are only beating a bluff there, and if he has a pair he likely also has an ace killing that card for you to pair.