Tournament risk in coinflip situations?

[Krow]

I was wondering what you think about risking an all-in in tournament situations. Does anyone think that it is advisable or ill-advised to go-allin in a coinflip in tournament to where if you lose your out and have no chance to win anything but if you win you double up.

Because I belive that if you risk an all-in in multiple coinflips throughout a tournament (with an average stack) it only takes one to knock you out and I think that even with a 2% edge (52/48) I wouldn't advise anyone to risk elimination on a coinflip even if the reward is to double up. I belive that it is better advised to pick I better spot. However I do understand that it may be a good decision to risk an all-in on a coinflip with a severe short stack. I just think with an average chip stack the risk versus reward is too great. But I have met some that disagree. Now on the other side I may see it wise to engage in a coinflip when you are not all-in and have another player outstacked because eliminating a player in that situation puts you closer to the money in a tournament, and maybe even if both players stacks are dead even I could see an arguement for that as well. I just want to hear some thoughts on this, for and against, I am against but I know many people who are for pushing with a coinflip even with the slightest edge say 50.5/49.5 (theoretical number) as it would be immpossible to tell.

[Jeff76]

You should take a coin flip if you have a less than 50% to double up if you fold.

In fast structured tournaments I do not believe that I have a greater than 50% chance to double up, so I take coin flips.

[iveyleague24]

If your projected ROI when you double up is >= 100/k% of your projected ROI with the chips you have now, where k is the edge you have in the coinflip, you should take the coinflip. For example, if you have 1500 chips, a 55% chance of doubling up, and a projected ROI of 25% with 1500 chips, you need to have a ROI of 45.45% with 3000 chips in order for the coinflip to be break even.

[sh58]

if you win you can get a big stack, then people will give you chips, specially around the bubble. so it's good to flip approaching the bubble to try and get a good size stack

[Tiger_Kid]

Asking this question is completely useless.
There is too little information. Are you pushing all-in? Are you calling all-in? What are the players left to act in either situation like? Are they timid, are they trying to survive, are they maniacs who have gotten lucky again and again so far? What phase of the tournament are you in? What is your chipstack like? What is everyone else's?

If you're calling all-in, and you think it's a coinflip, then unless the pot is offering better than 2:1 what you have left to call, I think it's probably better to fold. Especially if you think you can find a better spot to get the money in, or at least a spot where you can be the aggressor.

If you're the aggressor, you MUST know something about the other player. Again, though, if the pot vs. what you have left to push in is offering worse than 2:1, you're probably better off finding a better spot to make this move. Unless you feel there is a great enough chance of everyone, that is still left to act, folding then you might be ok to move all-in. You can't generalize on something like this. The best you can say is that in most situations where you might consider putting all your chips in the middle with probability of a coin-flip occuring, you're probably better off folding.

[Krow]

This is with calling or going all-in against a single player who will certainly call, and you are certian that it will be a coinflip. ALso I would say for early to middle stages of a tournament. And you have an average chipstack. All I mean is at this phase in a tournament with you and one player who pushed you all in with no one else who will call should you risk trying to double up, or hold off and pick a better spot, I usually opt to hold off, but I want to see how everyone thinks. Because I think risking even at say 48% of the time to being eliminated is just too risky.

[vixticator]

Say it's folded around to SB with you in BB; SB "agrees" to move in blind if you call blind and you are not allowed to look. Nevermind how. Can you think of a scenario (with deep stacks, early or late) where it makes sense for both players to do this? Assume it is not collusion and you aren't profit sharing.

[Simo_8ball]

[ QUOTE ]
Say it's folded around to SB with you in BB; SB "agrees" to move in blind if you call blind and you are not allowed to look. Nevermind how. Can you think of a scenario (with deep stacks, early or late) where it makes sense for both players to do this? Assume it is not collusion and you aren't profit sharing.

[/ QUOTE ]

If both players play disproportionately better with a large stack.

In a way, like Phil Ivey. If he is shorter stacked, he has a tendency to get impatient and bust out recklessly because he can get to a side game with higher expectation. If he doubles through, he is more willing/able to play to his full potential.

Essentially, Ivey plays a double stack with more than twice the equity of a single stack so a coinflip is +EV.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
Ivey plays a double stack with more than twice the equity of a single stack

[/ QUOTE ]Really? How does he accomplish this? How more than twice the equity does he have?

[Simo_8ball]

I would say it isfairly well known that cEV closely approximates $EV in the early stages of tournaments assuming neutral skill. By doubling your stack, you very nearly double your equity. Now, if you are liable to make mistakes and play recklessly with a shorter stack, but you play better with, and take full advantage of a chip lead, your $EV increases disproportionately.

Admittedly I could be wrong in the case of Phil Ivey because he still has a significant edge even when playing recklessly, but I believe my point still holds in many cases.

I would imagine that for a player like Dan Harrington this would not be the case, because he is not the sort to take 'full advantage' of a chiplead. By contrast, I think a player like Tuan Le is a good example of a player this holds for.