would you call?

slicer65 · #1 06-16-2007, 03:59 AM

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero?

MP3 has only been sitting for about 40 hands. He has been all over the place. Calling with everything. Raising when pair hits the board trying to represent trips. So God only knows where MP3 is. I know for a fact that its going to be capped. UTG+1 has been tight. His tight play makes me lean toward him having aq or qq. With this pot would you call knowing its going to be capped?

Aaron W. · #2 06-16-2007, 04:04 AM

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PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero?

MP3 has only been sitting for about 40 hands. He has been all over the place. Calling with everything. Raising when pair hits the board trying to represent trips. So God only knows where MP3 is. I know for a fact that its going to be capped. UTG+1 has been tight. His tight play makes me lean toward him having aq or qq. With this pot would you call knowing its going to be capped?

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I don't think UTG+1 has AQ or QQ. Most likely, he has a flush with KJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or maybe JT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I would probably call and lose. I'd also check-raise the turn based on your read for MP3. He could have AJ/AT/A2 here and you're missing out on a lot of value.

slicer65 · #3 06-16-2007, 08:22 AM

You say you would probably call and lose. Then why call?

Spota · #4 06-16-2007, 09:31 AM

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You say you would probably call and lose. Then why call?

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Because you are getting ~ 25 or 30:1 on your call. (I didnt count the bets but it's prolly close. You only need to have the best hand once in 25 or 30 times to make a call here profitable.

FWIW, I lead the turn here, hoping that MP3 has Ax. UTG+1 caught a flush, but I think it's still a call on the river.

NIX · #5 06-16-2007, 11:01 AM

With MP3 being a maniac, I assume we're ahead of him. I'd assume UTG+1 wouldn't be sitting on a full house on the turn since he missed a lot of value there. I figure his most likely hand is a flush, although I'm not sure if he donks into the PFRer and PF3Ber on an AAx flop with just a flush draw. Since you slowed down on the turn, UTG+1 may think his Ax is good on the river, so I'd probably try to show this down, getting over 7:1 worst case scenario.

NIX · #6 06-16-2007, 11:12 AM

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FWIW, I lead the turn here, hoping that MP3 has Ax. UTG+1 caught a flush, but I think it's still a call on the river.

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I agree that more bets should go in on the turn, but I prefer a check/raise to a donk. Most people who cap the flop are leading the turn, so I'd rather trap them by check/raising. Not that I would give MP3 credit to figuring this out, but usually when people lead a street into the previous street's capper, it's a sign of a huge hand.

MrWookie · #7 06-16-2007, 11:14 AM

I think we should have put in another bet or raise on the turn.

bravos1 · #8 06-17-2007, 01:15 AM

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Because you are getting ~ 25 or 30:1 on your call. (I didnt count the bets but it's prolly close. You only need to have the best hand once in 25 or 30 times to make a call here profitable.

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Maybe you should count the bets then? You're only getting 10:1

OP, I get another bet in on the turn.

terencetsao · #9 06-17-2007, 01:23 AM

i would put in another bet or raise on the turn because you hand is very likely to be the best hand. I also think i will fold the river since im only getting 10:1, and UTG1 might cap the pot still. is folding the river too weak there?

Bad Beat Maker · #10 06-17-2007, 04:44 AM

id prolly get more in on turn and call river