NL100 - AA on River : c/c, c/f, b/f ???

[jhill3535]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $20.50
BB: $60.20
<u>Hero (UTG): $190.95</u>
UTG+1: $19.15
MP1: $11.60
MP2: $89.85
MP3: $18.50
<u>CO: $193.70</u>
BTN: $51.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, 4 folds, CO calls $4.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.50</font>, CO calls $9.50

Turn: ($28.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, CO calls $20.00

River: ($68.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ?????

Assuming that if we bet here we bet here that we will bet at least 1/2 pot, and assuming that if we check here, Villian will fire about a 1/2 pot bet 90% of the time.

So the question is:

What is the appropriate river line here: Bet/Fold, Check/Fold, Check/Raise, or Check/Call???

Your reasoning is not necessary unless you just want to comment on the hand. Comments on other streets accepted too.

[pterodactyl_]

I think c/c something reasonable and c/f if he makes it more than 45. This is a tough spot because he can easily have the K but just as easily have a busted FD. Stats on the villain would make this more clear cut, I'm guessing we have none of those?

LOL at c/r being an option.

[KurtSF]

I guess the question is how much of his range is a K?

I don't think you can b/f, because that turns your hand face up and lets the FD take it. Check-raise I would only try against a know oponent who is weak-tight. Its a big bluf, an I would want someone who could fold Kx to run it against (and even then...). So I'm down to c/c and b/f.

I have a lot of luckj with c/c. But I don't think is appropriate here - you don't have much of a hand. I go with b/f, but I don't have hard reasons to take that over c/c.

Can anyone help me with his range here?

[jhill3535]

[ QUOTE ]
I think c/c something reasonable and c/f if he makes it more than 45. This is a tough spot because he can easily have the K but just as easily have a busted FD. Stats on the villain would make this more clear cut, I'm guessing we have none of those?

LOL at c/r being an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad, of course we have some stats. 34/19/1.85 over about 85 hands, sorry.

C/R, yeah, it is a wierd option, but who knows, someone might pick it.

[jhill3535]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the question is how much of his range is a K?

I don't think you can b/f, because that turns your hand face up and lets the FD take it. Check-raise I would only try against a know oponent who is weak-tight. Its a big bluf, an I would want someone who could fold Kx to run it against (and even then...). So I'm down to c/c and b/f.

I have a lot of luckj with c/c. But I don't think is appropriate here - you don't have much of a hand. I go with b/f, but I don't have hard reasons to take that over c/c.

Can anyone help me with his range here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like i have a pretty good read on his range now. Preflop from my feel at the table I would say that he would smooth call my raise from the CO with:

QQ-22,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo+, KJo+,QJo,JTo

[jhill3535]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess the question is how much of his range is a K?

I don't think you can b/f, because that turns your hand face up and lets the FD take it. Check-raise I would only try against a know oponent who is weak-tight. Its a big bluf, an I would want someone who could fold Kx to run it against (and even then...). So I'm down to c/c and b/f.

I have a lot of luckj with c/c. But I don't think is appropriate here - you don't have much of a hand. I go with b/f, but I don't have hard reasons to take that over c/c.

Can anyone help me with his range here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like i have a pretty good read on his range now. Preflop from my feel at the table I would say that he would smooth call my raise from the CO with:

QQ-22,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,ATo+, KJo+,QJo,JTo

[/ QUOTE ]

And after the turn I really felt like he could be calling with a King, a Queen, any draws and maybe a hand like JJ or possibly even TT