%deals nuts FR?

[nowhammies]

What percentage of deals,after the river, give someone the nuts in a full-ring hold'em game? In other words, how common is it for someone to hold the nuts?

[nowhammies]

Noone knows?

[Bob T.]

noone cares.

A lot of hands that might become the nuts get folded. Or you might be going to have the nuts, but you never get to the river.

[nowhammies]

Clarification: % of winning hands, after the river, that are the nuts ...

[Bob T.]

Maybe move this to a probability or a theory forum. This is a strategy forum, and the question really doesn't matter here.

99+% of the time you don't have the nuts, and how you play all those hands with relative values make a lot more difference than how you play hands with absolute values.

It would be time consuming, but you could figure out how many straights would eventually occur, and what percentage of those are the nut straight. It would be a little more straightforward for flushes. Full houses, are occasionally the nuts, when you have blocked quads, and quads and straight flushes are also usually the nuts. If you really want to know, you just have to enumerate those hands, and it shouldn't take you more than a week with pencil and paper to figure it out.

[floppynuts92]

idk

[Phil153]

It's a difficult question to answer because you'd have to look at all classes of boards and find the nuts. You'd have to go through each of these cases:

On any paired or tripped board where no straight flush is possible, quads is the nuts

On any unpaired flush board, where no straight flush is possible, the nut flush is the nuts

On any unpaired straight board, where no flush is possible, nut straight is the nuts.

etc...

You'd have to go through every combination, and for things like straights and flushes, boards that are close to the upper boundary will have a different answer. The only real way to answer this is with a simulation - deal out every possible board, find the best possible hand, and count the number of hole cards that match it.