qq flopped top set, good fold?

[jerryf1914]

villians stats are all solid


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $39.70
Hero (BB): $21.55
UTG: $22.75
CO: $12.60
BTN: $41.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, SB calls $2.00

Turn: ($6) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $12.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $8.00 returned to SB

Pot Size: $14.00 ($0.70 Rake)

[bsheck]

I think it's close. You're getting the right price to call here and get the rest of your money in if the board pairs. I probably would call here planning to fold the river if the board doesn't pair.

[Sotiria]

Hero will only have $7.75 left if he calls the turn bet, unless I'm missing something.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's close. You're getting the right price to call here and get the rest of your money in if the board pairs. I probably would call here planning to fold the river if the board doesn't pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is he giving me the right price? i need 4 to 1 (closer to 5 to 1) and hes giving me less than 3 to 1.

[JJBuffone]

Ugh this is a really bad spot. I agree with bsheck though on calling and folding on the river if villain pushes and the board doesn't pair.

[JJBuffone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's close. You're getting the right price to call here and get the rest of your money in if the board pairs. I probably would call here planning to fold the river if the board doesn't pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is he giving me the right price? i need 4 to 1 (closer to 5 to 1) and hes giving me less than 3 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds yo

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's close. You're getting the right price to call here and get the rest of your money in if the board pairs. I probably would call here planning to fold the river if the board doesn't pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is he giving me the right price? i need 4 to 1 (closer to 5 to 1) and hes giving me less than 3 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds yo

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have implied odds either.

edit: expressed odds here are 8:30 ~ 1:3.75; we are 1:4.6 to hit the river. so i guess a call isn't terrible, but it's not +ev. as far as implied odds go you would be getting 14.55 to 43.1 ---&gt; 1:2.97

[dOkAEbeEx]

I don't know about that fold. I would push all in and pray for the boat. You could have gotten paid out.

[bsheck]

Board: Qh 9h 8h 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.727% 22.73% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 77.273% 77.27% 00.00% 34 0.00 { Ah3h }

If I'm doing my math right, you need 3.4:1 odds to continue with the hand. As it stands, you need to call $8 to continue in a pot of $22, so you're getting 2.75:1. You have a mere $6.55 left, but if you add that to the pot odds (calling $8 in a pot of $28.55), you're getting 3.57:1, enough to continue. You don't have to add the $6.55 on to the $8 you have to call by the way, because you'll only be putting that money in if the board pairs. Assuming he shoves or calls over 95.2% of the time when the board pairs, you can continue profitably. It's unreasonable to assume he can get away from his flush when you only have $6.55 left, so you can profitably call and get it in on the river if you boat it up.

[tarheeljks]

i agree we have 8:30 or 1:3.75 to call, so we need approx ~27% equity. we have approx 23% by your calc; how is that enough to continue (strictly by the numbers of course)?