50NL but 300BB deep and I'm not sure if I want to gamble here

jumbojacks · #1 06-15-2007, 12:45 AM

Villain is crazy running 48/42. I don't think AF matters. Almost everyone except the player on my right is playing super tight. I've been calling him light to build a big stack and hoping to get a shot at doubling up. He's pulled some sick reckless multi-street bluffs ending up with a river 3x river overbet in a 3way pot with air. He's also instashoved preflop numerous times as a 3bet and 4bet with Ax and Kx type hands. Everytime I open in LP, he'll 3bet any two in the blinds, and this is always. He's folded to my 4bet the first time which was a bluff. This is my 2nd 4bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP ($74.10)
CO ($283.85)
Button ($73.65)
SB ($63.50)
BB ($84.30)
Hero ($177.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero raises to $18, CO raises to $283.85, Hero...

I think my mistake was a 4bet without the intention to call off my stack. Would you still make this call?

Isura · #2 06-15-2007, 12:47 AM

quick call

Dire · #3 06-15-2007, 01:03 AM

I think calling is nonoptimal here because of opportunity cost, as I call it at least. I will say first off, calling is probably +EV (so bear with me) but it's going to be pretty close. He's not just shoving over some nitty < 2 buyin stacks, he's shoving over your 3-bet for almost 4 buyins. He's also UTG. I think the frequency of him doing this with the random Kx/Ax hands is going to be somewhat reduced. So maybe you're a 55% favorite against his range.

The thing is, that edge is stupidly tiny against this guy. If this was for a single buyin or you were able to rebuy deep somehow or you were against a good player then that's enough of an edge to take. Against a moron who is sufficiently likely to give you the exact same opportunity at a much higher expected rate of return sometime in this session, it makes sense to wait.

Basically it comes down to this: your overall earn rate/100 is much higher when you and this guy are both deep stacked. So your earn rate at this table will plummet when you do eventually go all in with this guy, regardless of who wins. Since this large earn rate situation will only last for a finite amount of time, it makes sense to 'cash it in' for as much as you can get. Cashing it in as only slightly better than a coin flip doesn't make much sense. You're basically selling your earn rate for $30 or so.

So folding is just a matter of pragmatics. Calling is perfectly good and most likely +EV compared to folding over this single hand, but I think -EV in terms of your entire session with this guy.

GrandMelon · #4 06-15-2007, 01:19 AM

Id probably fold and wait for a better spot against this guy

I wouldnt hate a call though

Claunchy · #5 06-15-2007, 01:20 AM

I'd probably call b/c GAAAAAMBOOOL, but I don't hate a fold. It's sorta close. Dire makes some good points.

Bukem_ · #6 06-15-2007, 01:23 AM

If I 4 bet him with aq its cause he is a spazz that will push with any ace, and I am instacalling him.

aislephive · #7 06-15-2007, 01:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I 4 bet him with aq its cause he is a spazz that will push with any ace, and I am instacalling him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isura · #8 06-15-2007, 09:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think calling is nonoptimal here because of opportunity cost, as I call it at least. I will say first off, calling is probably +EV (so bear with me) but it's going to be pretty close. He's not just shoving over some nitty < 2 buyin stacks, he's shoving over your 3-bet for almost 4 buyins. He's also UTG. I think the frequency of him doing this with the random Kx/Ax hands is going to be somewhat reduced. So maybe you're a 55% favorite against his range.

The thing is, that edge is stupidly tiny against this guy. If this was for a single buyin or you were able to rebuy deep somehow or you were against a good player then that's enough of an edge to take. Against a moron who is sufficiently likely to give you the exact same opportunity at a much higher expected rate of return sometime in this session, it makes sense to wait.

Basically it comes down to this: your overall earn rate/100 is much higher when you and this guy are both deep stacked. So your earn rate at this table will plummet when you do eventually go all in with this guy, regardless of who wins. Since this large earn rate situation will only last for a finite amount of time, it makes sense to 'cash it in' for as much as you can get. Cashing it in as only slightly better than a coin flip doesn't make much sense. You're basically selling your earn rate for $30 or so.

So folding is just a matter of pragmatics. Calling is perfectly good and most likely +EV compared to folding over this single hand, but I think -EV in terms of your entire session with this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of thinking sucks IMO. This is a hugely +EV spot. Being a 5% favorite is not a small edge, and we are closer to having 60% equity against his range of Ax and some Kx. If he starts pushing stuff like T9s or random junk then our equity with AQ is even higher. Also, this guy isn't going to last that long playing this way. This might be our best spot to get a lot of money in as a significant favorite before someone else takes all the fish's money.

nevereverwin · #9 06-15-2007, 10:12 AM

Vs. this guy I limp AQ utg and call his raise from button (not ai of course) and on flop you will have much better idea what to do..

As played I insta muck and never 4 bet.

futuredoc85 · #10 06-15-2007, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vs. this guy I limp AQ utg and call his raise from button (not ai of course) and on flop you will have much better idea what to do..

As played I insta muck and never 4 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf.