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UFC 72 - Betting by the numbers?
OK folks, I've been working on a new qualitative, objective analysis for MMA via spreadsheet.
Each fighter is rated in 13 different categories. However, the analysis is only as good as the information provided to the sheet. (As exampled by UFC Fight Night, with a bunch of unknown entities on the card, and I racked up an ugly 1-5 record.) I look forward to using this on some fighters whom I have a large amount of film on, so I can get a much more in-depth analysis. These factors are not weighted equally, and their weight may change depending on opponent's strengths. (For example, a submission specialists jiu-jitsu skills don't get the same weight for someone with tremendous takedown defence like Liddel as they would for someone with poor takedown defence Cheick Kongo.) Each fighter is given a rating of 1 (obvious strength), 0 (average), or -1 (obvious exploitable weakness) in each of the following categories: [*]Striking[*]Striking Defence (Few fighters would have one but not the other. But there are exceptions... Mr. Jardine, I'm looking at you.) [*]Takedowns[*]Takedown Defence [*]Can consistently get off the bottom? OR[*]Submission skills (A fighter does not automatically get rated in one or the other, but they cannot get a rating in both. A fighter tends to favor one option over the other.) [*]Submission Defence[*]Effective Ground Striking [*]Smart Fighter? (A la Randy Couture, comes in with several well-thought out game-plans)[*]Chain Fighter? (A la Fedor. Creates scrambles on purpose, scrolls from submission to strike to submission constantly, giving his opponent no time to think or defend)[*]Strength Advantage (Obviously only one fighter can have this. This is reserved only for large strength mismatches, like Sherk vs. Florian)[*]Proven Gas Tank Tito.[*]Are there known medical/weight issues that can impede the fighter? (Lutter's weight vs. Silva, Sakuraba barely able to walk vs. Gracie 2, Tito's ACL vs. Griffin) Why am I telling you all this? So that I can give ratings to each fighter, and get opinions, corrections and consensus on each fighter. Plug the consensus into the sheet, and get our odds. Sound like a plan? I'll start posting profiles shortly. |
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