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#1
06-14-2007, 07:47 AM
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Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
Only have 20 hands on villain which said 80/20/1 so his range could be pretty wide here
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) Hero (SB): $49.50 BB: $43.35 UTG: $5.65 MP: $51.45 CO: $37.95 BTN: $13.30 Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG calls $0.50, MP folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1.00, UTG calls $1.00 Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players) Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $15.00</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $10.50 Turn: ($36) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $11.00</font>, Hero? Pot Size: $47.00 I mean his bet is pretty weak and does he really show up with an ace here? Isnt a mid pocket pair much more likely? 
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#2
06-14-2007, 08:00 AM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
Well, you're a 2.5 - 1 dog if villain has any Ace. This could also be a bluff, so that would make your chances even better.
The pot is offering you ~ 4.3 - 1 on your call. You'll most likely get the rest of his stack if the board pairs and he's got the Ace. You've also got any 6 helping you to tie against most of his range then. Easy call.
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#3
06-14-2007, 08:06 AM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
[ QUOTE ]
Well, you're a 2.5 - 1 dog if villain has any Ace. This could also be a bluff, so that would make your chances even better. The pot is offering you ~ 4.3 - 1 on your call. You'll most likely get the rest of his stack if the board pairs and he's got the Ace. You've also got any 6 helping you to tie against most of his range then. Easy call. [/ QUOTE ] As said above easy call but villain has a A here FAR more than a PP
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#4
06-14-2007, 09:32 AM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
I agree with the call on turn. But now that i am thinking about this hand i am curious on the river play. Would you call a smallish bet? Like 5-8 dollars or so if you dont improve? Or would you fold to any bet size? I assume we have to fold to any bet on the river. Can anyone give opinion on my river question? Thank you
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#7
06-14-2007, 09:54 AM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
That's exactly why i was asking. We call the turn knowing pretty much we are beaten. Are the odds going to make it any better or worse? I'm just not sure that we win enough even at 12(10)-1 odds if there's a BET COMING. Maybe im just too weak to play this call on the river.
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#8
06-14-2007, 12:37 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
This guy bets the pot and calls my c/r on flop. On what kind of Ace do you guys put him? Would AK call a c/r on flop? No way I guess... Would he play A5 that way? Very unlikely... The only Ace that makes sense to me would be AA and he would definately push that on the flop. And why am I getting 12:1 on my call? I am getting 4:1.
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#10
06-14-2007, 02:17 PM
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Re: Flopped Set - Ugly Turn
your flop raise is too small.
C/R to ~$19 rather than 15. We want donks to make as big mistakes as possible when we are way ahead, thier mistakes are the source of our profit. I'd donk the flop for ~1/3 pot. When the pfr raises your flop donk, 3bet HUGE. e.g. flop ($6) you lead out for $2.50 - he is likely to raise this as it "looks weak" lets say he raises to $5 and then you 3bet to ~pot so you reraise to $18.50. Now if he calls the stacks are going in no matter what the turn is, and we flopped a set! The best plan when you flop a set is to try to get all the chips into the pot as fast as possible and let the cards fall how they may. As played snap call turn and open push any river. his range includes most overpairs as well as a bunch of Ax hands the flush draw, a combo draw with Axs, he might have A4 A6 66 67. If we push the river he calls with a lot of hands we are ahead of, AA/KK/QQ/2pair/set He's not folding the river with a straight or better (barring an act of God Misclick) and he'll push the rest of his meagre stack in with those hands if we check to him - and then we give ourselves such good odds that we are compelled to call for the times he has 2 pair or QQ or something like that that we have crushed. He might be scared of the 4 to a straight board and check behind with hands we beat which loses us value of we check the river to him.
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