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  #1  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:00 AM
greggg230 greggg230 is offline
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Default PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Weird hand

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1760)
UTG+1 (t1510)
MP1 (t1410)
MP2 (t1730)
MP3 (t1465)
CO (t1280)
Hero (t1455)
SB (t1490)
BB (t1400)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Hero calls t30, SB calls t15, BB checks

Flop: (t210) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets t30</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, Hero calls t30, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t30

Turn: (t360) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets t90</font>, MP2 calls t90, Hero calls t90, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to t180</font>, UTG+1 calls t90, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, Hero calls t90

The limp pre-flop might be questionable, but with so many limpers behind and position, I thought it might not be bad.

On the flop, I'm getting 9:1 odds on my call - should I fold here?

On the turn, I'm getting 5.5:1 from straight-up pot odds on the bet and then 15:2 on the raise. Odds against filling up are 21:2 (46 cards left, 4 of which will fill me up).

However, other two players almost certainly have good flushes and the money is likely to go in on the river, so if I do fill up, I can very likely triple up. Are the implied odds good enough here to call the turn?
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  #2  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:17 AM
Acey Acey is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Sticky hand, i think you save alot of trouble by folding preflop. As played i call the flop and fold the turn. You have 4 outs and you dont get 1 to 11.5 on your money.
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  #3  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:18 AM
Acey Acey is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Btw, non spade 9 on turn and you can call turn and call a non spade river. Dont get too excited over 2 pairs here, just make it cheap.
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  #4  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:25 AM
RexWoo RexWoo is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Fold the turn
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  #5  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:36 AM
greggg230 greggg230 is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Pot before I call pre-flop is 195.

Pot before I call $30 bet on flop is 300 (10:1 odds - miscalculated in OP)

Pot before I call $90 bet on turn is 540. (6:1 odds)

Pot before I call raise on turn is 900. (10:1 odds)

21:2 odds against making a full house means I need to make more than 945 after filling up to have positive expected value. All that means is that I'll get a little more than a min bet from one of the two on the river if I fill up.
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  #6  
Old 06-14-2007, 07:58 AM
Sharagoz Sharagoz is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

Just based on the pot odds it looks like a call, but 4 other callers on the flop makes me suspect some of your outs are gonne. I think I'd fold.
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  #7  
Old 06-14-2007, 08:00 AM
ADLinden ADLinden is offline
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Default Re: PS $6.5 - Odds to try to draw to a boat?

fold pf
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