AQ hand on drawy board. What to do.

[intensity]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($219.05)
MP ($241)
CO ($129.50)
Button ($79.85)
SB ($182.70)
BB ($239.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $34</font>, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $32</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero

[cs3]

any kind of read? is he a donk? solid? anything?

[intensity]

No history. He's 19/13 so I'm assuming he's pretty solid

[Idiotex]

This is a tough hand. It seems like he has made a set to me. Although many things are possible. Why would he check-raise?

If you are continuation betting every time you raise preflop and he is trying to exploit this why would he raise you by less than 3 times your bet? The board is too draw heavy. So if he was smart and he just has a big ace I think he raises more.

But his turn bet is weird. He is betting so little into the pot. It's either, [censored] my draw didn't hit, or he thinks you really do have something like AK and he wants good value out of his set. Although, still... It is too little to bet on this board.

The more I think about this hand the more I think villain is a total donk playing the hand terribly.

You can either fold and play it safe, or call, and then call his river bet as well presumably. He is seemingly slowing down in relation to the pot however so it seems there is a chance he will check the river.

Hands like Td-Jd? I can't see it.

I think he is playing a set badly.

[Idiotex]

Addition: He may have a big draw and be trying to exploit your continuation betting. Then when you call and he realizes you really do have a big ace maybe he tries to keep representing a big hand hoping his draw hits the river.

In terms of equity I think it may be 60 / 40 in his favour given that his range goes from AK to set to massive draw. Can't be bothered with poker stove though right now.

[TheMadHeater]

I'm often in this spot, c-betting a strongish top pair hand and getting the old almost-min-cr. I feel like I generally misplay this type of spot, and just kinda guess my way through it street by street based on 'feel' or some stupid [censored].

I'm very intersted to know what other people think here. If a relative unknown does this and keeps betting small the whole way do we just bury our head and call or what? I hate letting bitches milk me like this with their sets.

[Bramsterdam]

I hate this spot.

I usually call turn then fold to a river bet (especially when a draw hits), but that doesn't feel right..

[drewvy]

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I hate this spot.

I usually call turn then fold to a river bet (especially when a draw hits), but that doesn't feel right..

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opponent dependent but yes....you could stick a rerasie in on flop if you think he's exploiting you and fold to any further action too...it would be good for your image and you'd get paid when you did have a big hand too

[jas759]

I'll preface this with a warning. I'm profitable at 6 max tables but I dunno if I'm knowledgeable/good (that's actually one of the reasons that I want to respond to the post because it's going to make me think about 6 max NLHE). Also, it's long. Much longer than I had intended when I sat down to think about it.

And now for something completely different.

Ok, at a 6 max table, I'm generally more aggressive than at a 10 max which I think is pretty standard. Therefore, I'm almost always looking to buy the button with a good but not necessarily great hand. So, what does your UTG raise represent? Think about it in the way the table perceives you, not as you perceive yourself. You said the BB had a 19/13, what are your percentages? Additionally, what is his/your PFA? Depending on these values, you can get a better idea of what his CR means. For instance, if you C-bet everytime you raise, this CR could be meant to see where he's at...either to push you off junk/underpair "knowing that you can't call with an A on board facing a CR" or to figure out if his Ax is good. If you're selective with your C-bets (ie, make them only when it seems as if the flop hit you, when it actually hit you or when you have an overpair) then this CR could be for value.

We're biased since we know you have a big A. But, would you or do you raise UTG with any pair/KQ/Ax/suited hands? More importantly, would the villain have a good reason to put you on something other than a premium hand? Conventional poker theory states that an UTG raiser has the goods a high percentage of the time. This is less true (although not always false) in a 6 max game, specifically one in the new ultra-agressive era of NLHE. Again, this is where your VP$IP/PFR/PFA %s come into play.

So what could a presumably solid player (Villain) call another presumably solid player's (Hero's) UTG raise with? Note, we're assuming that you're raising reasonable hands. Additionally we're also assuming that the villain realizes this. So what could the villain hold? First, I would say any pair lower than QQ, but possibly AA. I think you get a reraise from QQ and KK in this spot but AA might sandbag a little, especially with the propensity of players to c-bet. Furthermore, what hands would call a reraise from an OOP player vs your initial UTG raise? I'd say not too many but this really isn't that important as there is only one way to make AA. Set mining could be profitable here as you're both pretty deep. In addition to pairs, AK, AQ and maybe AJs are applicable here too, possibly KQs as well (although I find the latter 2 difficult to play OOP to a PFR). As an aside, I suppose you could make a case for a number of other hands depending on the range that you put the preflop raiser on. Furthermore, you could argue a these speculative hands based on the villain's read of the hero and how well the villain plays postflop. I hate to sound like a broken record but this again depends on how the villain perceives your play.

Alright, the flop isn't beautiful, but it's playable, especially HU for a raise. Villain checks, you c-bet about $14 into $17 and get CRed to $34. Now you're looking at calling $20 to win $65.

The first thing you have to ask yourself is, does the villain have a bigger A (or Aces up)? Note that he only has 8 ways to make AK (2 Aces times 4 Kings). Also, he only has 6 ways to make AQ and 8 ways to make any other Ax (other than A8 or A9). Conversely, if he has Ax (where x is any card) then he can reason similiarly that you have only so many ways to make a hand with a bigger A (or Aces up). A CR with almost any Ace here seems reasonable. A good player (in this case, the hero) will probably shut down on the turn with KK-TT, 77-22...just about anything that didn't hit the flop pretty hard after an OOP player calls a PFR and a c-bet here. So, a CR could suggest a medium A or even a decent PP trying to push you off of a non-A. He also might be trying to figure out where he's at with his Ax. And once you make CR call, he probably has you narrowed down to a very few hands, namely AA, AK, AQ, AJ, 99 or 88 assuming that he doesn't have one of those hands.

The next thing you have to ask is, does he have a set or 89? Post flop, because of the CR, 89 certainly seems feasible. This is his perfect flop. But going back to perception, would he call you with 89 preflop in this situation? I might but my 6 max stats probably look maniacal. Does he view you as the type of player who would go broke with AK/AQ in this situation? A CR from 88 or 99 also seems possible here too. Like I said earlier, KK-TT etc. shuts down on the turn after the BB calls a bet so with a CR here, he may be trying to gain some value from a big A.

The last things to ask are, is this a complete bluff? and, does he have a huge draw that he's willing to semi-bluff out of position? I highly doubt he's making this play with air. I also don't suspect that he's doing this with JTd, T7d, 76d, QTd, QJd or KQd (with no straight draws), however it is possible and is worth analyzing.

Now, in order to make this post even longer, I'm going to list some villain hand possibilities - the distribution of his range I would give him based on the preflop (and some postflop) information which I will ammend in a moment:

Hands that beat you:
AA (1 hand)
AK (8 hands)
88 (6)
99 (6)
A8 (6)
A9 (6)

Hands that you tie:
AQ (6)

Hands that you beat:
AJ, AT, A7-A2 (8*8=64)
KK, QQ, JJ, TT (6*4=24)
JTd, T7d, 76d, QJd, QTd, KQd (6 hands)
6 complete bluffs

Total hands = 139
Hands that you beat = 90
And you split with AQ

Now, the hands that you beat, you crush. While the hands that beat you, crush you. Based on the his lead on the turn, we can tighten this distribution. I'd say we can rule out pure bluffs, and weak Aces (under AT or AJ although I'll keep AJ in this instance). You can also probably discount any pairs other than 88, 99.

The new distribution looks like this:

Hands that beat you:
AA, AK, A9, A8, 99, 88 (33 hands)

Hands that you tie:
AQ (6 hands)

Hands that you beat:
AJ, JTd, T7d, 76d, QJd, QTd (13 hands)

52 total hands

After the turn you're faced with a $32 bet into an $84ish pot. Thus you're getting about 3.6:1. Feels like a sucker bet (and possibly, but less likely, a blocker bet from a smaller Ace) but let's look at the numbers.

Against AK, A9 and A8 you're in the same position...you need to catch a Q for a winner. Against any of the hands that you're beating, you need to dodge a diamond, a straight card or a J. To add a little nuance, you could break it down further. Perhaps the AJ was suited in clubs, in which case you could be even more rigorous and figure out the EV of that situation (although this is a relatively insignificant, complicating calculation). As a matter of fact, if I CRed the flop with AcJc and the turn came as it did, 2c, I would lead the turn, semi-bluffing with possibly the best hand. Against 88 or 99, you're drawing dead. Also, a purebluff on the flop with clubs might lead into the turn but this is highly improbable and thus insignificant and complicating.

I won't show the calculations (PM me if you're really interested) but if you multiply the chance of winning with AQ vs each of the above hands, sum the averages and then divide by 52 hands, you get your equity of the pot. This equity is just under 30% which is larger than the odds that
the pot is offering you (which is about 27.6% or 3.6:1) so it looks like a call situation if you like to gamble, but a fold situation if you don't like high variance plays or are unsure of your read and thus adjusted distribution (for instance, if you knew he would never make this play on the come, it's very obviously a fold. Or if he consistently calls large raises with 89 OOP, this is also a fold. You'll note that I neglected 89 above because I assumed him to be a tight player with 19/13 and I don't see 89 fitting into 19/13.). There's no shame in avoiding marginal EV situations, especially against tough/solid opponents.

By the way, if anyone hasn't passed out by now, please check my math, I ballparked the averages as I couldn't find a decent calculator let alone do the calculations with my boss at the next desk.

If you called here, you could apply the same reasoning/math based on how the river fell, what he bet and perhaps a final adjustment to the distribution/range based on what you think his bet implies. You can also give him a "bluff frequency" - how often will he fire on the river if a diamond (or a club in this case) peels off, trying to represent the flush when he has a hand you can beat.

In conclusion, at this point I'd say you're faced with a very marginal EV decision. How you continue with the hand is up to your reads (which should be more accurate than mine) and your general playing style (do you push small EV edges in search of profit/action on later hands).

I hope this was helpful if not incredibly time consuming. I realize that all of the ideas/math that I covered aren't necessarily practical during the course of a hand. Hell, it took me about 2 hours to write this at work. Please feel free to critique my analysis or expand upon it.

Good luck at the tables,
Joe

[JackAll]

jas759 - waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay tl;dr


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No history. He's 19/13 so I'm assuming he's pretty solid

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What the f kinds of 19/13 min-riases and leads for 30% ???