Uh-oh - it's the "gimme your money" line

[Guy McSucker]

Crypto $5/10.

I open QJo in the CO. Button who is a 40/30 LAG type 3-bets. He doesn't threebet all that often which is surprising given his stats. Anyway.

The BB comes along for the ride, and we see a flop of Q 8 7 with two diamonds.

Checked to the button who bets, BB calls, I check-raise, button calls, BB folds.

1) Is that a decent flop line? Should I be thinking WA/WB here instead?

Turn is an offsuit 2. I bet and button raises. There are 10BB in the pot.

2) Call down, right? Perhaps fold to river A?

Guy.

[bobhalford]

If there were fewer bets in the pot I would fold. If the turn card was a 7 or 8, I would be more inclined to fold. With 10BB's in there, I think calling down is slightly -ev. You can't call the turn and fold river unimproved, because he will have TT or whatever often enough to call a river bet. If we didn't have top pair, we could probably call the turn and fold the river unimproved, figuring our 2p/trip outs are good, but that our hand isn't good enough to showdown.

It's hard to fold the turn getting 10-1, because you have to think that a Q or J could give you the best hand. Calling the turn is probably -ev because you probably have something like 3 outs and aren't getting the best odds. Further, if you hit a Q on the river, you may have to bet out and could get raised by a better hand. Or else, if you check a Q river, villain may check behind fearing you have trips. But usually we will win only one bet on the river when we improve to the best hand. I think that, if we were in position and had a better sense of our outs situation, we could call the turn knowing that we could win a double bet on the river if a Q or J appears. But the situation here I think makes for a close call.

[sharpie]

Easy calldown. This guy can 3 bets worse queens PF, and he might be doing some retarded free SD thing.

Edit: I'm not folding to an ace either. Shouldn't really help anything unless he's pulling a ridiculous free SD with ace high, and if he's capable of that he's capable of free showdowning a worse pair and turning it into a bluff when the "scare" card falls.

[bobhalford]

sharpie, do you think a guy that raises pf a lot but doesn't 3-bet often is 3-betting a tag with QT?

I could see this guy doing this with AK/JJ/TT, so yeah, I see a calldown here, but I'd still expect to lose to a big hand.

[sharpie]

I missed the part about him not 3 betting too much. Still I often 3 bet hands like QJs QTs and JTs in his spot, and I would give a possibility that he does.

I'm not saying I love my hand when he raises the turn, I think we're losing more often than not, but no way we can fold against this guy IMO.

[yourface]

flop is perfect
call down from the turn raise. I don't like my hand too much at that point but we can peel the turn with odds to improve vs AA KK, we have 3 outs vs his better queens, and we are ahead occasionally to like TT Q9s QTs or splitting with another JQ.

then on the river I can't fold in this big of a pot vs a LAG

[jstill]

flop is definitely perfect, u take this line knowing its the money maximizing one despite the fact that if he raises u on the turn esp when the pot is only HU u dont feel too great about the calldown but are resigned to it some percentage of the time ( i feel much better about calling down when he 3bets the flop or raises the turn knocking out BB).

the rivers the only questionable street since this type of player will semi bluff and fsdr probably enough with worse hands where folding the turn would be a definite mistake. But again on the river a crying call could only be a small mistake here. Dont fold an A river becuz it means hes almost more likely to be bluffing since a Q may check behind, and if he raised an Ax hand thats not TPTK on the turn he ll have been FOS enough on the turn where we can assume he will be occasionally on the river as well getting 12:1.

I would not fold an 8 or 7 turn either, since its unlikely he 3bet an 8x or 7x hand, altho we now have fewer outs vs an overpair (4 outs is enough on the turn iMO where we cant fold which is easy to suspect vs his range since he wouldnt 3bet 77 or 88 perhaps, and we re often still ahead so equity wise its a cant fold) but overpairs should 3bet the flop so this is a semi bluff alot from diamonds, a crappy free showdown from 99-JJ or like the 1 combo of QQ or a poorly played KQ AQ KK or AA.

[DavidC]

sometimes people do weird stuff, call down.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes people do weird stuff, call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a 40-30, it doesn't appear he's a rational tag. I've seen guys raise this turn with A8. I'm folding this turn or river about 2% of the time.

[UtzChips]

[ QUOTE ]
If there were fewer bets in the pot I would fold. If the turn card was a 7 or 8, I would be more inclined to fold. With 10BB's in there, I think calling down is slightly -ev. You can't call the turn and fold river unimproved, because he will have TT or whatever often enough to call a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't follow....calling down is slightly -Ev, however, you can't fold unimproved because he will have TT often enough to warrant paying to see the Showdown.

On the 2nd part of your post, I understand the problem of paying 2 bets unimproved to see if you have the best hand, getting 5.5:1 on your money. So 2 times out of 11 your hand has to be the best + Villain can't improve on the River.

Then there's the problem of not getting a 2nd bet out of him when another Q falls and he doesn't have one, however, if he was pushing his Q8s, he may give up on the River if a K/A falls, thinking you may have just got your 2nd pair.