KK call fold or push?

[eymon222]

sunday million on ps 6/10/07
45 minutes into tournament this hand comes up. my read on villian was that he played his previous hands strongly after the flop (pot size bets,check raises) or he check/fold. do I follow harington or raymer on this hand.
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t14550)
UTG+1 (t17000)
Hero (t9575)
MP2 (t9050)
MP3 (t5200)
CO (t13675)
Button (t13775)
SB (t22700)
BB (t13700)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with K K
UTG raises to t600, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to t1600, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG raises to t4800

call,fold,or push?

[paddymcg21]

Absolutely horrible spot! He's raised UTG and been re raised, he surely has to put you on QQ+ or at least AK which means he has something here. Im not sure if im right but i shove this and hate doing it. I expect to see AA about half the time.

[WCGRider]

I shove and love life

[cpk]

My guts tell me to shove, but let's think about it critically.

The pot is 7300. You have 7975 left. The rule of thumb is that a player is full of [censored] [/i]at least[/i] 10% of the time. So 10% of the time your opponent will fold and you'll win 7300.

Of the remaining 90%, assume your opponent's range is QQ+. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have QQ. 81.2% of the time you will win 15275. 18.8% of the time you will lose 7975. 1/13 of the time your opponent will have KK, which is a push and you will win 3650. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have AA. 81.3% of the time you will lose 7975, 18.7% of the time you will win 15275.*

I've probably screwed up the math, but I get an EV of 4005 for a shove if this assumption is correct. If he folds QQ half the time, it drops to 3257. If he always folds QQ, then it drops to 2508. In any case, all you need is for him to make this 3-bet with QQ+, and you have a clear +EV call. If his range for the move is only KK+/10% other, though, then you are in deep doo-doo, for an EV of -1598. Boost it to 20% other, and you get -610. If it is 30% other, then it's +379.

The point of this exercise is to show that you need serious evidence to fold KK preflop. I think your opponent is pretty aggressive and may have a wider range for this move than KK+. He only needs about a 30% deviation from KK+ for a shove to be profitable. The wider the deviation, the more profit for you.

*I did some simplification here. Actually sometimes you'll win or lose vs. KK, and sometimes you'll tie against QQ or AA. But these eventualities are very minor and shouldn't change the calculations much.

Edit: Fixed arithmetic errors.

[Cornell Fiji]

never fold KK preflop in an online tournament.

Someone will have AA ~ 1:22 times that you have KK but their range is always big enough for you to go all in.

[bobbycharles]

I def push....same situation came up two weeks ago for me. If he has AA, oh well.

[hERESY]

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely horrible spot! He's raised UTG and been re raised, he surely has to put you on QQ+ or at least AK which means he has something here. Im not sure if im right but i shove this and hate doing it. I expect to see AA about half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard this. KK is huge.

[paddymcg21]

LOL just because it's online doesnt mean the guy is an idiot. He's raised UTG and he knows full well that a raise UTG means something. Now if hero re raises UTG raiser that is sending a strong message. IMO if id been watching hero play and he hadn't got out of line id think the absolute minimum hero has is AK. So why would he then shove??? Maybe my opinions are clouded because ive had a horrid run of about 3 weeks where literally just about 1/3 of the time when ive had KK ive run into AA. The way villain plays this AA is a strong possibility. BTW I said I shove this because like every1 says there isnt really any reason to fold kings here, all im saying is I do it expecting to see aces a good percentage of the time. I think villain folds JJ and AK here, depending on how loose he is he may well fold QQ too. So to sum up I did say I shove this Im just not over the moon about doing so probably due to recent experience.

[FishyMcFish]

Glad he cleared that one up.

[paddymcg21]

no problem newbie