Reasonable expectations?

[phatjeffrey]

Hey , i have my last final tom. and i want to play poker during the summer to make some money , For a decent "winning" player at 25NL (If things go along fine .. can move up ), four tabling , for 3-4 hrs per day over the course of the summer, how much should i expect to make in 3 months ? thx

[lucky_mf]

A reasonable expectation is is a range between some negative number and 0. If your like almost everyone else you are going to lose money for a while. You might even lose money for 3-months or longer, depending on factors such as how quickly you learn and how prone you are to tilt.

I'm not trying to discourage you. If you have some natural aptitude, are on solid emotional footing, and play a bunch you might be able to make substantial sums of money eventually, but to think its going to happen right away is not realistic. Even if you were a good player playing 30k+ hands at 25NL a good month might be $1,500.

Lucky

[Cry Me A River]

What level do you currently play and what is your win rate?

[raze]

I would advise not to -expect- any given amount. Your winrate will tell you your skill level, and you can improve from there.

[phatjeffrey]

ive read NLHTAP , HOH's and LGB , i have a good understanding of the game , probably better than alot of people playing at 25NL.

Havent seriously played online yet , a couple of months ago some site gave me 10$ and i managed to work it up to 180$ in 2 days .. but i think i was running hot , cant get stats into PT or PokerEV graphing thing because it didnt support them ... buti was winning a fairly "big" amount of money considering the stakes and time period.. so i couldnt really figure things out..

so thing is i think i read somewhere here that the avg "winning player" has a winrate of 6PTBB/100 (dont know which stakes ) if im not mistaken , and most tables seem to have almost a ~ 100 hands / hr .. so basically four tabling ---> 24 PTBB = 12$/hr --> ~ 40 $ a night..
would this be a fine assumption to make or is it way off?

[lucky_mf]

[ QUOTE ]
ive read NLHTAP , HOH's and LGB , i have a good understanding of the game , probably better than alot of people playing at 25NL.

Havent seriously played online yet , a couple of months ago some site gave me 10$ and i managed to work it up to 180$ in 2 days .. but i think i was running hot , cant get stats into PT or PokerEV graphing thing because it didnt support them ... buti was winning a fairly "big" amount of money considering the stakes and time period.. so i couldnt really figure things out..

so thing is i think i read somewhere here that the avg "winning player" has a winrate of 6PTBB/100 (dont know which stakes ) if im not mistaken , and most tables seem to have almost a ~ 100 hands / hr .. so basically four tabling ---> 24 PTBB = 12$/hr --> ~ 40 $ a night..
would this be a fine assumption to make or is it way off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is way off initially. There is a lot to learn. By the end of the summer it might be realistic.

Lucky

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]
so thing is i think i read somewhere here that the avg "winning player" has a winrate of 6PTBB/100

[/ QUOTE ]

It's extremely difficult to make any predictions due to the fact you have no history. Two days is not enough to even predict is you are a winning player. And there's no way to tell how you're going to deal with suddenly playing daily (tilt, boredom, burnout, etc).

If you're at all depending on making money, I think this is a really, really bad idea.

An excellent 6-maxer might be able to sustain 6PTBB/100 at $25NL. At full ring and/or someone who "Hasn't seriously played online yet" this is a huge, huge stretch.

Realistically, if I were you I think I'd be pretty happy with 3PTBB/100 over at least the first month but it wouldn't be a big surprise to me if you ran break-even.

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey , i have my last final tom. and i want to play poker during the summer to make some money , For a decent "winning" player at 25NL (If things go along fine .. can move up ), four tabling , for 3-4 hrs per day over the course of the summer, how much should i expect to make in 3 months ? thx

[/ QUOTE ]

YMMV

[Cry Me A River]

Recent FRNL thread about win-rates:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1